Here at the Seniors Discount Club, we’d normally associate summertime with sunshine and warm days.

Unfortunately, according to a shocking new report by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), a hot summer carries risks beyond too much heat.

The ACCC warned that the warm weather could trigger a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shortage for Australia’s east coast market.

Based on their September Interim Gas Inquiry Report, the gas supply is expected to narrowly avoid a shortfall in the 2024 March quarter—but that is based on the assumption that Australia’s excess gas won’t be sent overseas and that demand for gas used to generate electricity won’t increase any higher than a certain level.

ACCC warned that the warm weather could trigger a Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shortage for Australia’s east coast market. Credit: Fahroni/Shutterstock

‘If additional uncontracted gas is exported and there is an upswing in gas-powered generation demand, then gas supply could be insufficient to meet demand,’ the ACCC said.

Needless to say, these are huge assumptions, and they both hinge on the weather staying cool and consumer habits remaining unchanged.

If the heat is cranked up to full blast, a gas shortage is almost inevitable. And with gas shortages come increased prices and possible power outages.

Meanwhile, the federal government suggested that the improved outlook meant domestic shortages would be avoided, and higher exports would top up government tax revenues.

But the ACCC remains concerned. ‘While the overall outlook is positive, there remains a risk that the outlook could worsen, particularly from higher-than-expected gas demand,’ it noted.

The report—released on Wednesday, September 20—looked at the demand and supply of gas into 2024. It mentioned that the East Coast would probably have 1.4 petajoules of surplus gas in the first quarter if all uncontracted LNG is exported.

However, the surplus had been reduced from 7.2 petajoules excess compared to three months ago.

Based on the June 2023 forecast, the supply of gas in the March quarter will be 5.9 petajoules—which is higher than predicted—and export demand is expected to rise to 8.2 petajoules.

Resources Minister Madeleine King stated: ‘This latest advice from the ACCC shows the gas outlook for 2024 is improving thanks to the sustained effort of government and industry to ensure there is sufficient gas supply at reasonable prices to meet domestic demand.’

But regardless of the projected surplus for early 2024, concerns about potential long-term winter shortages remain.

'While the report provides a positive outlook for the next six months, the ACCC did not update their long-term outlook with forecast shortfalls still likely from 2027 unless production is expanded,' said Samantha McCulloch, Chief Executive of the peak LNG industry body Australian Energy Producers.

‘New gas supply is urgently needed and can put downward pressure on prices, reduce emissions by replacing coal and deliver substantial economic benefits to Australians,’ she added.

Ms McCulloch claimed that investments were essential, especially in New South Wales and Victoria, where most residents rely on gas.

Since the Albanese government introduced a price cap—currently at $12 a gigajoule—and an additional code of conduct on the gas trade, there has been very little effort in developing new gas supply projects.

During that time, the intervention was met with opposition from gas producers who claimed that the federal government was ‘taking control’ of the market and warned of a future dysfunction and higher energy bills without plans to ensure additional supply.

Last March, the Australian Energy Market Operator forewarned that businesses and households could have winter gas supply shortages. This was magnified by the reduced production from the Bass Strait, the East Coast’s primary source of domestic gas.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has stated that the short-term positive outlook has been complemented by the federal government’s mandatory gas code of conduct that the Coalition had opposed.

‘Our energy price relief plan is deliberately designed to deliver better, fairer prices for Australian consumers at the same time as we honour our trusted role as an energy supplier,’ Dr Chalmers said.

‘It’s really pleasing to see more evidence that it is working as we intended,’ he added.

Key Takeaways

• A new report by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) warned of a potential LNG supply shortage due to a hot summer and power station outages.
  
• The ACCC's report stressed that avoiding a gas shortage in early 2024 hinges on Australia's excess gas not being exported and demand for gas-powered electricity not increasing.
  
• Despite a positive projection from the federal government, the ACCC cautioned of a potentially worsening gas situation, especially due to higher-than-expected gas demand.
  
• Investment is needed, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, to meet the gas demands of large populations, and despite a projected surplus for early 2024, concerns for potential long-term winter shortages are still unaddressed.
  

What do you think of this story, members? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

 

[Kman]

Why? Australia has has natural gas fields of its own. Stop selling overseas, we need it here.

 

[Luckyus]

Here at the Seniors Discount Club, we’d normally associate summertime with sunshine and warm days.

Unfortunately, according to a shocking new report by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), a hot summer carries risks beyond too much heat.

The ACCC warned that the warm weather could trigger a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shortage for Australia’s east coast market.

Based on their September Interim Gas Inquiry Report, the gas supply is expected to narrowly avoid a shortfall in the 2024 March quarter—but that is based on the assumption that Australia’s excess gas won’t be sent overseas and that demand for gas used to generate electricity won’t increase any higher than a certain level.

View attachment 30470

ACCC warned that the warm weather could trigger a Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shortage for Australia’s east coast market. Credit: Fahroni/Shutterstock

‘If additional uncontracted gas is exported and there is an upswing in gas-powered generation demand, then gas supply could be insufficient to meet demand,’ the ACCC said.

Needless to say, these are huge assumptions, and they both hinge on the weather staying cool and consumer habits remaining unchanged.

If the heat is cranked up to full blast, a gas shortage is almost inevitable. And with gas shortages come increased prices and possible power outages.

Meanwhile, the federal government suggested that the improved outlook meant domestic shortages would be avoided, and higher exports would top up government tax revenues.

But the ACCC remains concerned. ‘While the overall outlook is positive, there remains a risk that the outlook could worsen, particularly from higher-than-expected gas demand,’ it noted.

The report—released on Wednesday, September 20—looked at the demand and supply of gas into 2024. It mentioned that the East Coast would probably have 1.4 petajoules of surplus gas in the first quarter if all uncontracted LNG is exported.

However, the surplus had been reduced from 7.2 petajoules excess compared to three months ago.

Based on the June 2023 forecast, the supply of gas in the March quarter will be 5.9 petajoules—which is higher than predicted—and export demand is expected to rise to 8.2 petajoules.

Resources Minister Madeleine King stated: ‘This latest advice from the ACCC shows the gas outlook for 2024 is improving thanks to the sustained effort of government and industry to ensure there is sufficient gas supply at reasonable prices to meet domestic demand.’

But regardless of the projected surplus for early 2024, concerns about potential long-term winter shortages remain.

'While the report provides a positive outlook for the next six months, the ACCC did not update their long-term outlook with forecast shortfalls still likely from 2027 unless production is expanded,' said Samantha McCulloch, Chief Executive of the peak LNG industry body Australian Energy Producers.

‘New gas supply is urgently needed and can put downward pressure on prices, reduce emissions by replacing coal and deliver substantial economic benefits to Australians,’ she added.

Ms McCulloch claimed that investments were essential, especially in New South Wales and Victoria, where most residents rely on gas.

Since the Albanese government introduced a price cap—currently at $12 a gigajoule—and an additional code of conduct on the gas trade, there has been very little effort in developing new gas supply projects.

During that time, the intervention was met with opposition from gas producers who claimed that the federal government was ‘taking control’ of the market and warned of a future dysfunction and higher energy bills without plans to ensure additional supply.

Last March, the Australian Energy Market Operator forewarned that businesses and households could have winter gas supply shortages. This was magnified by the reduced production from the Bass Strait, the East Coast’s primary source of domestic gas.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has stated that the short-term positive outlook has been complemented by the federal government’s mandatory gas code of conduct that the Coalition had opposed.

‘Our energy price relief plan is deliberately designed to deliver better, fairer prices for Australian consumers at the same time as we honour our trusted role as an energy supplier,’ Dr Chalmers said.

‘It’s really pleasing to see more evidence that it is working as we intended,’ he added.

Key Takeaways

• A new report by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) warned of a potential LNG supply shortage due to a hot summer and power station outages.
• The ACCC's report stressed that avoiding a gas shortage in early 2024 hinges on Australia's excess gas not being exported and demand for gas-powered electricity not increasing.
• Despite a positive projection from the federal government, the ACCC cautioned of a potentially worsening gas situation, especially due to higher-than-expected gas demand.
• Investment is needed, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, to meet the gas demands of large populations, and despite a projected surplus for early 2024, concerns for potential long-term winter shortages are still unaddressed.

What do you think of this story, members? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

It's time for all governments to stop our gas and oil going overseas and to tell OPEC to get stuffed. I remember when we had the fire at ESSO Longford in Victoria in 1998 the price shoot-up from 11cents a litre to 33 cents with the price returning to the pre explosion price. Well guess what all of a sudden LNG came under the purview of OPEC and the price has steadily risen since then affecting every poor bastard that changed over their vehicles to gas.

 

[Trudi]

Well, it's definitely time to kiss my ducted gas heating good bye and replace it with a reverse cycle split system air conditioner in the family room.

 

[Veggiepatch]

I'm trying to analyse the correlation between domestic natural gas price and the wholesale price to no avail. Along with "become a member to access this data" messages, I'm bombarded with differing energy units. Gigajoues, British Thermal Units and now some weird thing called index points!

I usually love doing this shit, but I've had enough, especially trying to get me to pay for information. Reeks of paywalls that the media use.

 

[Veggiepatch]

Well, it's definitely time to kiss my ducted gas heating good bye and replace it with a reverse cycle split system air conditioner in the family room.

At the moment, gas is substantially cheaper than electricity for heating. But that may change.

 

[Veggiepatch]

Did I read correctly that a few years ago, China and India were paying $2 a gigajoule? Looks as if the current price is $12 in Australia - so wrong!

 

[Jest]

Here at the Seniors Discount Club, we’d normally associate summertime with sunshine and warm days.

Unfortunately, according to a shocking new report by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), a hot summer carries risks beyond too much heat.

The ACCC warned that the warm weather could trigger a liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shortage for Australia’s east coast market.

Based on their September Interim Gas Inquiry Report, the gas supply is expected to narrowly avoid a shortfall in the 2024 March quarter—but that is based on the assumption that Australia’s excess gas won’t be sent overseas and that demand for gas used to generate electricity won’t increase any higher than a certain level.

View attachment 30470

ACCC warned that the warm weather could trigger a Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shortage for Australia’s east coast market. Credit: Fahroni/Shutterstock

‘If additional uncontracted gas is exported and there is an upswing in gas-powered generation demand, then gas supply could be insufficient to meet demand,’ the ACCC said.

Needless to say, these are huge assumptions, and they both hinge on the weather staying cool and consumer habits remaining unchanged.

If the heat is cranked up to full blast, a gas shortage is almost inevitable. And with gas shortages come increased prices and possible power outages.

Meanwhile, the federal government suggested that the improved outlook meant domestic shortages would be avoided, and higher exports would top up government tax revenues.

But the ACCC remains concerned. ‘While the overall outlook is positive, there remains a risk that the outlook could worsen, particularly from higher-than-expected gas demand,’ it noted.

The report—released on Wednesday, September 20—looked at the demand and supply of gas into 2024. It mentioned that the East Coast would probably have 1.4 petajoules of surplus gas in the first quarter if all uncontracted LNG is exported.

However, the surplus had been reduced from 7.2 petajoules excess compared to three months ago.

Based on the June 2023 forecast, the supply of gas in the March quarter will be 5.9 petajoules—which is higher than predicted—and export demand is expected to rise to 8.2 petajoules.

Resources Minister Madeleine King stated: ‘This latest advice from the ACCC shows the gas outlook for 2024 is improving thanks to the sustained effort of government and industry to ensure there is sufficient gas supply at reasonable prices to meet domestic demand.’

But regardless of the projected surplus for early 2024, concerns about potential long-term winter shortages remain.

'While the report provides a positive outlook for the next six months, the ACCC did not update their long-term outlook with forecast shortfalls still likely from 2027 unless production is expanded,' said Samantha McCulloch, Chief Executive of the peak LNG industry body Australian Energy Producers.

‘New gas supply is urgently needed and can put downward pressure on prices, reduce emissions by replacing coal and deliver substantial economic benefits to Australians,’ she added.

Ms McCulloch claimed that investments were essential, especially in New South Wales and Victoria, where most residents rely on gas.

Since the Albanese government introduced a price cap—currently at $12 a gigajoule—and an additional code of conduct on the gas trade, there has been very little effort in developing new gas supply projects.

During that time, the intervention was met with opposition from gas producers who claimed that the federal government was ‘taking control’ of the market and warned of a future dysfunction and higher energy bills without plans to ensure additional supply.

Last March, the Australian Energy Market Operator forewarned that businesses and households could have winter gas supply shortages. This was magnified by the reduced production from the Bass Strait, the East Coast’s primary source of domestic gas.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has stated that the short-term positive outlook has been complemented by the federal government’s mandatory gas code of conduct that the Coalition had opposed.

‘Our energy price relief plan is deliberately designed to deliver better, fairer prices for Australian consumers at the same time as we honour our trusted role as an energy supplier,’ Dr Chalmers said.

‘It’s really pleasing to see more evidence that it is working as we intended,’ he added.

Key Takeaways

• A new report by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) warned of a potential LNG supply shortage due to a hot summer and power station outages.
• The ACCC's report stressed that avoiding a gas shortage in early 2024 hinges on Australia's excess gas not being exported and demand for gas-powered electricity not increasing.
• Despite a positive projection from the federal government, the ACCC cautioned of a potentially worsening gas situation, especially due to higher-than-expected gas demand.
• Investment is needed, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, to meet the gas demands of large populations, and despite a projected surplus for early 2024, concerns for potential long-term winter shortages are still unaddressed.

What do you think of this story, members? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

if things had been left as they were this wouldn't even be a topic. we had 35.5 in ipswich yesterday guess what today? 23.6. all this scare mongering over ONE day of higher temps. my air-con did not go on either. Would someone just please grow a brain as Bowen wont. Why is there not more of an uproar from the oldies who complain about costs etc.

 

[Tony@51]

if things had been left as they were this wouldn't even be a topic. we had 35.5 in ipswich yesterday guess what today? 23.6. all this scare mongering over ONE day of higher temps. my air-con did not go on either. Would someone just please grow a brain as Bowen wont. Why is there not more of an uproar from the oldies who complain about costs etc.

because we oldies are seen to have no value and the world would be better without us sprouting common sense and not agreeing with the woke idiots.,

 

[Jest]

because we oldies are seen to have no value and the world would be better without us sprouting common sense and not agreeing with the woke idiots.,

i am 84 years old and i still value myself and my views. no reason for you not too. that is an oldie, not have values and who the hell says the world would be better off without you? I am too far right for the woke idiots.

 

[Trudi]

At the moment, gas is substantially cheaper than electricity for heating. But that may change.

Nah, it isn't!

I just paid more than $1,000 for my gas bill and all I use that crap for is ducted heating and hot water.

I still hate the builder who argued with me that since I was building in Canberra, I "had" to install ducted gas heating!

I wanted reverse cycle ducted air-conditioning and a heat pump for hot water. To save money, I could have installed another 5 kW of solar panels in addition to my existing 1.5 kW system (which gives me 50.05 cents per kWh gross feed in) and also install a battery!

It would cost me an arm and a leg to have the bloody gas stuff un-installed and replaced with reverse cycle air-con, particularly since I want to sell my house anyway

 

[Keswickian]

This doesn't need to happen in this country if only our naive and foolish politicians and executives listen to the right people.

We have plenty of gas. We just need to withhold enough for domestic use before we export.

We need to sanction new gas field development instead of trying to stop them because of unwarranted climate change fears.

The whole anthropogenic climate change thing is a complete furphy. Climate change is still predominantly geologic and not anthropogenic. (I know and believe that because I'm a geologist). Net zero is unnecessary and highly unlikely to be achieved. Some European Governments are already beginning to realize that and roll back net zero targets.

There simply aren't enough mineral resources on the planet to fulfil the renewable energy infrastructure requirements.

 

[Veggiepatch]

This doesn't need to happen in this country if only our naive and foolish politicians and executives listen to the right people.

We have plenty of gas. We just need to withhold enough for domestic use before we export.

We need to sanction new gas field development instead of trying to stop them because of unwarranted climate change fears.

The whole anthropogenic climate change thing is a complete furphy. Climate change is still predominantly geologic and not anthropogenic. (I know and believe that because I'm a geologist). Net zero is unnecessary and highly unlikely to be achieved. Some European Governments are already beginning to realize that and roll back net zero targets.

There simply aren't enough mineral resources on the planet to fulfil the renewable energy infrastructure requirements.

You're my type of person! Someone with a scientific mind AND qualifications to back it up. The power of research and analysis, not a lemming like response without studying the issue at hand.

But we have Greta Thunberg with a PhD in stupidity and alarmism. And a mouthpiece for the hooligans called Extinction Rebellion.

I wonder how this morning's sermon at the Church of Climatology is going.