Will food prices ever come down? Don't bet on it
- Replies 2
While recent cuts to interest rates may have given mortgage holders a bit of a financial breathing space, the cost of food continues to creep upward.
The latest Australia Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index (ABS CPI) figures show that food and non-alcoholic beverages were up by 3 per cent in the 12 months to July 2025.
Fruit and vegetables were up 4.8 per cent for the same period.
Independent economist Saul Eslake has looked at the ABS CPI over a longer time frame, dating back to the 1980s.
"Prices in general, and food and non-alcoholic beverages in particular, hardly ever come down," he said.
Mr Eslake said that when looking at the annual rate of change in the CPI index of food and beverages, there have only been four times in the past 45 years when prices have fallen (2012, 2013, 2016, and in 2017).
"The falls on the last three of these occasions were all less than 1 per cent," he said.
And each of these occasions was largely the result of big falls in fruit and/or vegetable prices, resulting from earlier cyclone- or flood-driven spikes being unwound, he said.
"Remember Cyclone Yasi and bananas?"
All major food groups have trended upwards over time, and rarely come down.
Fruit and vegetable prices are more volatile than other food items.
Egg prices have risen by 49 per cent over the past three years, mainly due to the impacts of bird flu.
"Egg prices are also historically a bit more volatile than most other food items, though not as much as fruit and veggies," Mr Eslake said.
"It's possible that at some point at least part of this increase in egg prices could be reversed."
"We had hoped all that attention would drive prices a bit downwards, but we're not really seeing that," said Choice editorial director Mark Serrels.
Choice regularly compares the cost of a basket of groceries.
Its latest survey (June 2025) has found that for a full basket of 15 items, Aldi came in cheapest at $55.34, followed by Coles at $56.75, Woolworths at $57.20, and IGA at $65.56.
When looking at home brand-only baskets, the differences between the big retailers were less stark.
Aldi was the cheapest at $20.08, followed by Coles at $21.30, Woolworths at $21.40, and IGA at $23.89.
Mr Serrels said the rise in the cost of food was putting pressure on Australians, many of whom were not seeing significant increases in wages.
"We think it just adds up to a real massive cost of living crisis for Australians," he said.
He encouraged shoppers to consider alternatives to the big supermarkets, like co-ops, fresh grocers, and other independent stores.
Professor of criminology at Griffith University, Michael Townsley, described the figure as "crazy".
He said groceries made up the bulk of the retail sector.
"We're seeing a lot more food and perishable items being stolen today than 15 or 20 years ago."
He believed the rising cost of living was one of the reasons why food theft was up.
"Everyone is feeling a lot of pressure, prices have increased, wages haven't."
In a statement, a spokesperson for Coles supermarkets said criminals target high-value items.
"Including skincare, makeup, and medicinal items, as well as expensive cuts of red meat such as eye fillet and lamb backstraps," the spokesperson said.
"Despite record levels of investment in technology, security guards and safety training, organised crime continues to drive unacceptable levels of abuse and threatening behaviour."
He explained thieves appeared with a "trolley laden with stuff" and looked like they were "about to purchase", but simply "push it out of the store".
Professor Townsley said most retailers encourage staff to adopt a "no-challenge" approach to people they suspect of stealing.
"The reason for that is the consequences of a staff member getting involved in an altercation with a customer could be quite serious … if they get injured."
He said it was one of the reasons why staff faced escalating incidents of verbal and physical abuse.
"Offenders have also worked out there's this sort of no-challenge policy, and so if they escalate their behaviour, they've seen retail workers back down."
A spokesperson for Aldi said the supermarket was seeing the same rise in crime as the rest of the retail industry, "which we acknowledge is a complex issue".
"Our priority is the safety of our people and our customers, and we are constantly reviewing our protocols in line with this."
In the UK and the US, retailers are increasingly putting more products behind locked cabinets in a bid to reduce theft.
By Fiona Blackwood
The latest Australia Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index (ABS CPI) figures show that food and non-alcoholic beverages were up by 3 per cent in the 12 months to July 2025.
Fruit and vegetables were up 4.8 per cent for the same period.
Independent economist Saul Eslake has looked at the ABS CPI over a longer time frame, dating back to the 1980s.
"Prices in general, and food and non-alcoholic beverages in particular, hardly ever come down," he said.
The prices of all major food groups have trended upwards over time — and rarely come down. (ABC News: Jessica Black)
Mr Eslake said that when looking at the annual rate of change in the CPI index of food and beverages, there have only been four times in the past 45 years when prices have fallen (2012, 2013, 2016, and in 2017).
"The falls on the last three of these occasions were all less than 1 per cent," he said.
And each of these occasions was largely the result of big falls in fruit and/or vegetable prices, resulting from earlier cyclone- or flood-driven spikes being unwound, he said.
"Remember Cyclone Yasi and bananas?"
All major food groups have trended upwards over time, and rarely come down.
Fruit and vegetable prices are more volatile than other food items.
Pressure from the federal government and a Senate committee has not brought much change to the cost of groceries. (Supplied: Woolworths Group)
Egg prices have risen by 49 per cent over the past three years, mainly due to the impacts of bird flu.
"Egg prices are also historically a bit more volatile than most other food items, though not as much as fruit and veggies," Mr Eslake said.
"It's possible that at some point at least part of this increase in egg prices could be reversed."
Government pressure has not resulted in reduced prices
Pressure from the government and a Senate committee on supermarket prices has not resulted in big changes to the cost of groceries."We had hoped all that attention would drive prices a bit downwards, but we're not really seeing that," said Choice editorial director Mark Serrels.
The cost of fruit and vegetables is more volatile than other food items. (ABC South East SA: Elsie Adamo)
Choice regularly compares the cost of a basket of groceries.
Its latest survey (June 2025) has found that for a full basket of 15 items, Aldi came in cheapest at $55.34, followed by Coles at $56.75, Woolworths at $57.20, and IGA at $65.56.
When looking at home brand-only baskets, the differences between the big retailers were less stark.
Mr Serrels said the rise in the cost of food was putting pressure on Australians, many of whom were not seeing significant increases in wages.
"We think it just adds up to a real massive cost of living crisis for Australians," he said.
He encouraged shoppers to consider alternatives to the big supermarkets, like co-ops, fresh grocers, and other independent stores.
An economist says prices in general, and food and non-alcoholic beverages in particular, "hardly ever come down". (ABC Rural: Selina Green)
Is rising cost of food the reason food thefts are up?
A Griffith University study found the cost of retail crime in Australia amounted to $7.8 billion in the 2024 financial year, an increase of 28 per cent over a two-year period.Professor of criminology at Griffith University, Michael Townsley, described the figure as "crazy".
He said groceries made up the bulk of the retail sector.
"We're seeing a lot more food and perishable items being stolen today than 15 or 20 years ago."
"Everyone is feeling a lot of pressure, prices have increased, wages haven't."
In a statement, a spokesperson for Coles supermarkets said criminals target high-value items.
"Including skincare, makeup, and medicinal items, as well as expensive cuts of red meat such as eye fillet and lamb backstraps," the spokesperson said.
"Despite record levels of investment in technology, security guards and safety training, organised crime continues to drive unacceptable levels of abuse and threatening behaviour."
Thieves take advantage of 'no-challenge' approach
Professor Townsley said self-checkouts had made it easier to steal food, with some thieves using the "trolley push out" method.He explained thieves appeared with a "trolley laden with stuff" and looked like they were "about to purchase", but simply "push it out of the store".
Professor Townsley said most retailers encourage staff to adopt a "no-challenge" approach to people they suspect of stealing.
"The reason for that is the consequences of a staff member getting involved in an altercation with a customer could be quite serious … if they get injured."
He said it was one of the reasons why staff faced escalating incidents of verbal and physical abuse.
A spokesperson for Aldi said the supermarket was seeing the same rise in crime as the rest of the retail industry, "which we acknowledge is a complex issue".
"Our priority is the safety of our people and our customers, and we are constantly reviewing our protocols in line with this."
In the UK and the US, retailers are increasingly putting more products behind locked cabinets in a bid to reduce theft.
By Fiona Blackwood
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