Shutterstock

Transport is likely the hardest economic sector to decarbonise. And road vehicles produce the most greenhouse gas emissions of the Australian transport sector – 85% of its total. Freight trucks account for only 8% of travel on our roads but 27% of transport emissions.

We analysed the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Australian passenger cars and SUVs in a 2022 study. We have now looked at Australian trucks.

The 2022 study showed Australian electric cars already provided large cuts in emissions in 2019. The reduction was 30-40% compared to the overall on-road passenger vehicle fleet’s (life-cycle) emissions per kilometre in 2018. When renewables take over the electricity grid from which battery electric vehicles are charged, the cuts will be even bigger – around 75-80%.

Is it the same for Australian trucks? Our new study shows battery electric trucks are the best road transport option for getting closer to net-zero emissions. As the shift to renewables continues and batteries become more durable, these trucks are expected to deliver the largest and most certain emission cuts of 75-85% over their entire life cycle.

Hydrogen-powered (fuel cell) trucks also provide large emission cuts, but not as much as battery electric trucks. Their future performance is the most uncertain at this stage.

We can expect to see increasing numbers of electric trucks on our roads. Dllu/Wikimedia Commons , CC BY-SA​

What did the study look at?​

We looked at the fleet-averaged life-cycle emissions of three Australian truck sizes and three technologies – diesel, hydrogen and electric – for the pre-COVID year 2019 and a future decarbonised scenario. This scenario is based on 90% renewables in the electricity grid and 90% green hydrogen (produced using renewable energy).

To fairly assess emissions performance, we must look at the whole life cycle of both the vehicle and its energy or fuel process. Life-cycle assessment considers all aspects of a vehicle’s life – manufacturing, on-road driving, maintenance and disposal – and energy or fuel production and distribution. In future work we would like to include the life-cycle emission impacts of infrastructure such as roads.

Years of service by battery electric trucks give us more data, increasing certainty about their life-cycle emissions. Syced/Wikimedia Commons​

We also added something that is less commonly done in life-cycle assessments: a probabilistic analysis. Instead of estimating single emission values, we quantified a plausible range of emissions. These distributions provide helpful extra information.

For instance, if a distribution is wide (spanning a wide range of emission values), there is a lot of uncertainty and variability in the emissions performance. This would make the technology less robust from a climate change perspective.

A narrow distribution means there is less variability. We can be more certain the technology will perform as expected, with less risk of over-promising and under-performing.

Assessments must also reflect Australian conditions. For instance, we analysed truck odometer data and found Australian long-haul trucks drive much farther over their lifetime than European trucks.

Vehicle mileage directly affects lifecycle emissions but it also affects the number of times a battery or hydrogen fuel cell system may need to be replaced. Each replacement can significantly increase life-cycle emissions.

While the uptake of electric trucks has trailed other forms of road transport, their high mileage means any emission cuts add up. International Energy Agency/Wikimedia Commons , CC BY​

What did the study find?​

In 2019, life-cycle emissions for electric trucks (both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cells) were higher than for diesel trucks. There were a few reasons for this.

First, the electricity grid and hydrogen production depended heavily on fossil fuel power sources at the time. High-carbon energy sources increased emissions from electric vehicles. But this is changing fast.

Another important issue is uncertainty about the durability of battery and (hydrogen) fuel cell systems in heavy use, such as for long-haul articulated trucks. The largest Australian trucks travel about 2 million kilometres on average in their lifetime. Those sorts of distances test the durability of these systems.

We currently expect battery systems to last between 400,000km and 600,000km. The average lifetime mileage of long-haul freight trucks in particular means batteries will need to be replaced.

Other options on the table could at least partly reduce this problem. We could use ageing trucks differently, such as for shorter trips. Trucks could also use shared and externally charged batteries (battery swapping).

Battery and fuel cell systems are expected to become a lot more durable in coming decades. Alongside a strong decarbonisation of Australia’s electricity generation and hydrogen production, this completely changes the picture. This can be seen when we look at the estimated plausible range in life-cycle emissions for different truck sizes and powertrain technologies in the future decarbonised scenario.

Plausible range in life-cycle emissions from Australian trucks separated by size and technology in the decarbonised scenario.​

What does this mean for policy?​

Our modelling shows battery electric trucks will provide deep emission cuts of 75-85%, on average, across the fleet in the future decarbonised scenario. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks will provide large cuts of 50-70%, on average.

Hydrogen trucks are expected to emit about twice the amount of life-cycle emissions per kilometre compared to battery electric trucks. The latter’s extra reduction in emissions will be vital for getting road transport closer to the net-zero target in 2050.

The life-cycle emissions of the hydrogen trucks also have the largest uncertainty of all the powertrains we assessed. This reflects a general lack of data and information for this technology.

This uncertainty is important for policymakers to consider. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks carry a higher risk of not achieving anticipated emission cuts.

Using the available evidence, our study suggests policies to cut Australian trucking emissions should focus on promoting battery electric trucks wherever possible.

Of course, other policy measures will be needed to achieve net zero. The options include shifting freight from road to lower-emission electric rail or ships. We could also reduce overall freight travel by, for instance, optimising logistics.

This article was first published on The Conversation, and was written by , Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology Sydney

 

[Veggiepatch]

Where did you get your PhD?? I thought not. Try talking to real experts, not listening to the idiots put forward as such by the main media.

I'm a retired computer science professor and at least able to understand and critique the real evidence. There are thousands upon thousands of extremely well educated and intelligent climate scientists around the world that have researched climate change from many different perspectives. The evidence in unequivocal, climate change is real and is rapidly becoming a major threat to the whole world.

Use your own eyes. Look around you. The climate is changing in the way that the experts have been telling us. What do you think a large proportion of Ozzies who have been impacted by extreme weather events in recent years think? If we don't respond, then we, our children and all subsequent generations are doomed.

A retired computer science professor hey? Retired from the University of Kelloggs. So that makes you an expert in chemistry, material science and physics? Bow down to your false god Al Gore and his cronies in the InterGOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change. Concentrate on the capitalised bolded part.

Hello from someone with a PhD in Applied Chemistry from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) 1990.

 

[Docit]

Not a daft idea as long as the generators only cut in when the vehicle is braking as otherwise those generators would act against the vehicle's normal motion and waste energy.

They do that already, it’s called regenerative braking.

 

[Mrtnst]

I don’t think there is a single statement that you make in your whole response that is even close to true. Maybe you’ve spent too long being brainwashed by Sky news, Murdoch or other misinformation source.

You are entitled to your opinions.

However my opinion is that you have spent too much time listening to the ABC, and never conducted any independent research into what they are telling you.

I have.

 

[Rob44]

A retired computer science professor hey? Retired from the University of Kelloggs. So that makes you an expert in chemistry, material science and physics? Bow down to your false god Al Gore and his cronies in the InterGOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change. Concentrate on the capitalised bolded part.

Hello from someone with a PhD in Applied Chemistry from the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) 1990.

They do that already, it’s called regenerative braking.

Indeed, it is simply grammar-school physics. Back in the 1960s and possibly even earlier, trolley buses (EVs) built by Guys (used to make trucks as well) used to have a flywheel that spun up when the vehicle slowed down and stopped at a bus-stop; the transfer of momentum from the flywheel to the trolley-bus as it started away from the bus-stop helped it to accelerate. And maybe Guys' double-decker buses had the same system; nothing new under the sun, these days.

 

[falconxp]

All this electric powered vehicles why are they not made with generators attached to wheel's that charge the batteries as it in in motion and a top up charge if required hmmmm or am I on the wrong track here hmmmm interesting

They do. It's called regenerative braking.

 

[Verdexon]

Shutterstock

Transport is likely the hardest economic sector to decarbonise. And road vehicles produce the most greenhouse gas emissions of the Australian transport sector – 85% of its total. Freight trucks account for only 8% of travel on our roads but 27% of transport emissions.

We analysed the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Australian passenger cars and SUVs in a 2022 study. We have now looked at Australian trucks.

The 2022 study showed Australian electric cars already provided large cuts in emissions in 2019. The reduction was 30-40% compared to the overall on-road passenger vehicle fleet’s (life-cycle) emissions per kilometre in 2018. When renewables take over the electricity grid from which battery electric vehicles are charged, the cuts will be even bigger – around 75-80%.

Is it the same for Australian trucks? Our new study shows battery electric trucks are the best road transport option for getting closer to net-zero emissions. As the shift to renewables continues and batteries become more durable, these trucks are expected to deliver the largest and most certain emission cuts of 75-85% over their entire life cycle.

Hydrogen-powered (fuel cell) trucks also provide large emission cuts, but not as much as battery electric trucks. Their future performance is the most uncertain at this stage.

We can expect to see increasing numbers of electric trucks on our roads. Dllu/Wikimedia Commons , CC BY-SA

What did the study look at?​

We looked at the fleet-averaged life-cycle emissions of three Australian truck sizes and three technologies – diesel, hydrogen and electric – for the pre-COVID year 2019 and a future decarbonised scenario. This scenario is based on 90% renewables in the electricity grid and 90% green hydrogen (produced using renewable energy).

To fairly assess emissions performance, we must look at the whole life cycle of both the vehicle and its energy or fuel process. Life-cycle assessment considers all aspects of a vehicle’s life – manufacturing, on-road driving, maintenance and disposal – and energy or fuel production and distribution. In future work we would like to include the life-cycle emission impacts of infrastructure such as roads.

Years of service by battery electric trucks give us more data, increasing certainty about their life-cycle emissions. Syced/Wikimedia Commons

We also added something that is less commonly done in life-cycle assessments: a probabilistic analysis. Instead of estimating single emission values, we quantified a plausible range of emissions. These distributions provide helpful extra information.

For instance, if a distribution is wide (spanning a wide range of emission values), there is a lot of uncertainty and variability in the emissions performance. This would make the technology less robust from a climate change perspective.

A narrow distribution means there is less variability. We can be more certain the technology will perform as expected, with less risk of over-promising and under-performing.

Assessments must also reflect Australian conditions. For instance, we analysed truck odometer data and found Australian long-haul trucks drive much farther over their lifetime than European trucks.

Vehicle mileage directly affects lifecycle emissions but it also affects the number of times a battery or hydrogen fuel cell system may need to be replaced. Each replacement can significantly increase life-cycle emissions.

While the uptake of electric trucks has trailed other forms of road transport, their high mileage means any emission cuts add up. International Energy Agency/Wikimedia Commons , CC BY

What did the study find?​

In 2019, life-cycle emissions for electric trucks (both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cells) were higher than for diesel trucks. There were a few reasons for this.

First, the electricity grid and hydrogen production depended heavily on fossil fuel power sources at the time. High-carbon energy sources increased emissions from electric vehicles. But this is changing fast.

Another important issue is uncertainty about the durability of battery and (hydrogen) fuel cell systems in heavy use, such as for long-haul articulated trucks. The largest Australian trucks travel about 2 million kilometres on average in their lifetime. Those sorts of distances test the durability of these systems.

We currently expect battery systems to last between 400,000km and 600,000km. The average lifetime mileage of long-haul freight trucks in particular means batteries will need to be replaced.

Other options on the table could at least partly reduce this problem. We could use ageing trucks differently, such as for shorter trips. Trucks could also use shared and externally charged batteries (battery swapping).

Battery and fuel cell systems are expected to become a lot more durable in coming decades. Alongside a strong decarbonisation of Australia’s electricity generation and hydrogen production, this completely changes the picture. This can be seen when we look at the estimated plausible range in life-cycle emissions for different truck sizes and powertrain technologies in the future decarbonised scenario.

Plausible range in life-cycle emissions from Australian trucks separated by size and technology in the decarbonised scenario.

What does this mean for policy?​

Our modelling shows battery electric trucks will provide deep emission cuts of 75-85%, on average, across the fleet in the future decarbonised scenario. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks will provide large cuts of 50-70%, on average.

Hydrogen trucks are expected to emit about twice the amount of life-cycle emissions per kilometre compared to battery electric trucks. The latter’s extra reduction in emissions will be vital for getting road transport closer to the net-zero target in 2050.

The life-cycle emissions of the hydrogen trucks also have the largest uncertainty of all the powertrains we assessed. This reflects a general lack of data and information for this technology.

This uncertainty is important for policymakers to consider. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks carry a higher risk of not achieving anticipated emission cuts.

Using the available evidence, our study suggests policies to cut Australian trucking emissions should focus on promoting battery electric trucks wherever possible.

Of course, other policy measures will be needed to achieve net zero. The options include shifting freight from road to lower-emission electric rail or ships. We could also reduce overall freight travel by, for instance, optimising logistics.

This article was first published on The Conversation, and was written by , Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology Sydney

Solar panels are dark and and they emit energy to the space above them when they are not being radiated. This is known as black-body radiation. Satellites flying in space use this phenomenon to cool internal components. If they didn't do this they would fry themselves.
So solar farms not only produce more heat in summer than the original land that they were installed on, but they also produce more cooling in winter, thus exacerbating weather extremes.
So I conclude with this.
There is nothing green about green energy except the dirty money flowing into corrupt pockets.
There is not such thing as green energy. The science doesn't exist. The technology doesn't exist. The engineering doesn't exist. We are being pushed to save the planet with solutions that are worse than the problems.

 

[Verdexon]

I don’t think there is a single statement that you make in your whole response that is even close to true. Maybe you’ve spent too long being brainwashed by Sky news, Murdoch or other misinformation source.

A REAL debate needs to be had, not the one sided discussions held over the past years. And by real CLIMATE SCIENTISTS.
However these so-called CLIMATE CHANGE experts are not willing to face the real CLIMATE EXPERTS. On many occasions they have refused to debate and back up claims with facts and evidence.
As an example of misrepresentation, Al Gore who headed the major push at the turn of the century, ‘GLOBAL WARMING’ used information and data ‘cherry picked’ from lectures given by a professor with whom had contact.
This professor has refuted Gore’s misleading claims and statements showing where the out of context data is causing misguided and unnecessary HYSTERIA.
For those who are not aware, the GLOBAL WARMING has now changed to CLIMATE CHANGE, mainly due to two facts…….
1. Earth’s temperature rise did not jump as predicted and is now fluctuating as it has done so in the past.
Earth’s temperature and weather patterns are and have been monitored in a number of identifiable Cycles which have been recorded over hundreds of years.
2. Farcical temperature changes were loosing support so the wide ranging CLIMATE CHANGE headline was employed to hype the HYSTERIA. Like wild weather!!
NO not working, as an example, no cyclones on East Coast this year, one last year. And records show the number on the decrease.
As for floods, flood patterns since the mid 1800’s have not significantly changed.

And yes we all remember, sea levels to rise by 2 meters by 2007, no 2011, no 2013, no2018. And now temperatures to rise by 5 or 6 degrees.

Yes the WORLD has to protect the environment, but not be ridiculous and stupid about it.

Remember the earth once thrived with 3.81% CO2, we are now at 0.041%

WAKE UP AUSTRALIA and WORLD

 

[Tipsy]

Where did you get your PhD?? I thought not. Try talking to real experts, not listening to the idiots put forward as such by the main media.

I'm a retired computer science professor and at least able to understand and critique the real evidence. There are thousands upon thousands of extremely well educated and intelligent climate scientists around the world that have researched climate change from many different perspectives. The evidence in unequivocal, climate change is real and is rapidly becoming a major threat to the whole world.

Use your own eyes. Look around you. The climate is changing in the way that the experts have been telling us. What do you think a large proportion of Ozzies who have been impacted by extreme weather events in recent years think? If we don't respond, then we, our children and all subsequent generations are doomed.

YOU ARE JUST FOLLOWING THEIR LYING RHETORIC OF THR BULLSHIT ARTIST OF THE GOVERNMENTS AND MEDIA.... The truth which you seem to hate or cannot believe is that we need carbon to survive and for the planet to survive, ANYONE who does not believe this has been totally brainwashed or has been bought and paid for which I reckon has happened to you.. What happens if you hyperventilate during a panic attack !!! they make or suggest that you grab a paper bag or something and breath in and out to calm yourself down...WHY.. so that you REBREAVE THE CARBON back into your body (Medical Info) Intelligent people Dont need a PHD dipshit

 

[Luckyus]

What you are describing is a perpetual motion machine.... can't be done unfortunately.

What I think h may be talking about is something similar to the old head light generators that used to run off the tyre?.

 

[Verdexon]

YOU ARE JUST FOLLOWING THEIR LYING RHETORIC OF THR BULLSHIT ARTIST OF THE GOVERNMENTS AND MEDIA.... The truth which you seem to hate or cannot believe is that we need carbon to survive and for the planet to survive, ANYONE who does not believe this has been totally brainwashed or has been bought and paid for which I reckon has happened to you.. What happens if you hyperventilate during a panic attack !!! they make or suggest that you grab a paper bag or something and breath in and out to calm yourself down...WHY.. so that you REBREAVE THE CARBON back into your body (Medical Info) Intelligent people Dont need a PHD dipshit

 

[kevinwoodtufftyke52@gmail]

There is too

Shutterstock

Transport is likely the hardest economic sector to decarbonise. And road vehicles produce the most greenhouse gas emissions of the Australian transport sector – 85% of its total. Freight trucks account for only 8% of travel on our roads but 27% of transport emissions.

We analysed the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of Australian passenger cars and SUVs in a 2022 study. We have now looked at Australian trucks.

The 2022 study showed Australian electric cars already provided large cuts in emissions in 2019. The reduction was 30-40% compared to the overall on-road passenger vehicle fleet’s (life-cycle) emissions per kilometre in 2018. When renewables take over the electricity grid from which battery electric vehicles are charged, the cuts will be even bigger – around 75-80%.

Is it the same for Australian trucks? Our new study shows battery electric trucks are the best road transport option for getting closer to net-zero emissions. As the shift to renewables continues and batteries become more durable, these trucks are expected to deliver the largest and most certain emission cuts of 75-85% over their entire life cycle.

Hydrogen-powered (fuel cell) trucks also provide large emission cuts, but not as much as battery electric trucks. Their future performance is the most uncertain at this stage.

We can expect to see increasing numbers of electric trucks on our roads. Dllu/Wikimedia Commons , CC BY-SA

What did the study look at?​

We looked at the fleet-averaged life-cycle emissions of three Australian truck sizes and three technologies – diesel, hydrogen and electric – for the pre-COVID year 2019 and a future decarbonised scenario. This scenario is based on 90% renewables in the electricity grid and 90% green hydrogen (produced using renewable energy).

To fairly assess emissions performance, we must look at the whole life cycle of both the vehicle and its energy or fuel process. Life-cycle assessment considers all aspects of a vehicle’s life – manufacturing, on-road driving, maintenance and disposal – and energy or fuel production and distribution. In future work we would like to include the life-cycle emission impacts of infrastructure such as roads.

Years of service by battery electric trucks give us more data, increasing certainty about their life-cycle emissions. Syced/Wikimedia Commons

We also added something that is less commonly done in life-cycle assessments: a probabilistic analysis. Instead of estimating single emission values, we quantified a plausible range of emissions. These distributions provide helpful extra information.

For instance, if a distribution is wide (spanning a wide range of emission values), there is a lot of uncertainty and variability in the emissions performance. This would make the technology less robust from a climate change perspective.

A narrow distribution means there is less variability. We can be more certain the technology will perform as expected, with less risk of over-promising and under-performing.

Assessments must also reflect Australian conditions. For instance, we analysed truck odometer data and found Australian long-haul trucks drive much farther over their lifetime than European trucks.

Vehicle mileage directly affects lifecycle emissions but it also affects the number of times a battery or hydrogen fuel cell system may need to be replaced. Each replacement can significantly increase life-cycle emissions.

While the uptake of electric trucks has trailed other forms of road transport, their high mileage means any emission cuts add up. International Energy Agency/Wikimedia Commons , CC BY

What did the study find?​

In 2019, life-cycle emissions for electric trucks (both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cells) were higher than for diesel trucks. There were a few reasons for this.

First, the electricity grid and hydrogen production depended heavily on fossil fuel power sources at the time. High-carbon energy sources increased emissions from electric vehicles. But this is changing fast.

Another important issue is uncertainty about the durability of battery and (hydrogen) fuel cell systems in heavy use, such as for long-haul articulated trucks. The largest Australian trucks travel about 2 million kilometres on average in their lifetime. Those sorts of distances test the durability of these systems.

We currently expect battery systems to last between 400,000km and 600,000km. The average lifetime mileage of long-haul freight trucks in particular means batteries will need to be replaced.

Other options on the table could at least partly reduce this problem. We could use ageing trucks differently, such as for shorter trips. Trucks could also use shared and externally charged batteries (battery swapping).

Battery and fuel cell systems are expected to become a lot more durable in coming decades. Alongside a strong decarbonisation of Australia’s electricity generation and hydrogen production, this completely changes the picture. This can be seen when we look at the estimated plausible range in life-cycle emissions for different truck sizes and powertrain technologies in the future decarbonised scenario.

Plausible range in life-cycle emissions from Australian trucks separated by size and technology in the decarbonised scenario.

What does this mean for policy?​

Our modelling shows battery electric trucks will provide deep emission cuts of 75-85%, on average, across the fleet in the future decarbonised scenario. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks will provide large cuts of 50-70%, on average.

Hydrogen trucks are expected to emit about twice the amount of life-cycle emissions per kilometre compared to battery electric trucks. The latter’s extra reduction in emissions will be vital for getting road transport closer to the net-zero target in 2050.

The life-cycle emissions of the hydrogen trucks also have the largest uncertainty of all the powertrains we assessed. This reflects a general lack of data and information for this technology.

This uncertainty is important for policymakers to consider. Hydrogen (fuel cell) trucks carry a higher risk of not achieving anticipated emission cuts.

Using the available evidence, our study suggests policies to cut Australian trucking emissions should focus on promoting battery electric trucks wherever possible.

Of course, other policy measures will be needed to achieve net zero. The options include shifting freight from road to lower-emission electric rail or ships. We could also reduce overall freight travel by, for instance, optimising logistics.

This article was first published on The Conversation, and was written by , Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology Sydney

There is too much emphasis on reducing carbon emissions in Australia. We could get to zero emission country wide but the world emission would over-ride any benifit.

 

[Verdexon]

There is too

There is too much emphasis on reducing carbon emissions in Australia. We could get to zero emission country wide but the world emission would over-ride any benifit.

Until China come to the party everything we do is useless!!

 

[Knell]

I was enjoying this discussion - wonder what made it stop

 

[Veggiepatch]

I was enjoying this discussion - wonder what made it stop

Maybe Professor IT and his anti knowledge of the physical sciences realised they BIT off more than he/she/IT could chew....

 

[Knell]

Maybe Professor IT and his anti knowledge of the physical sciences realised they BIT off more than he/she/IT could chew....

So it seems haha. I was interested because I have been seeing the topic everywhere on social media lately - very politically.

 

[Knell]

So it seems haha. I was interested because I have been seeing the topic everywhere on social media lately - very politically.

I did enjoy the 'Run-Away' strategy LOL