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Remember when cash was king? Some experts say it could all vanish in just three years

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Remember when cash was king? Some experts say it could all vanish in just three years

  • Maan
  • By Maan
image2.png Remember when cash was king? Some experts say it could all vanish in just three years
Cashless future debate heats up in Australia. Image source: Pexels/Ivan Samkov | Disclaimer: This is a stock image used for illustrative purposes only and does not depict the actual person, item, or event described.

Australia could be on the brink of a cashless revolution—but not everyone agrees on what that future should look like.



One leading economist claimed the country could eliminate notes and coins within three years.



But new figures revealed Australians were actually withdrawing more cash than ever before.





In this Article


Calls to phase out cash and tackle tax evasion



Professor Richard Holden, from the University of New South Wales, argued that phasing out cash would help stamp out tax evasion and deliver billions in extra GST revenue.



The Harvard-educated economist said the black economy was costing the government $10 billion a year and depriving workers of income tax relief.




‘I acknowledge it would need to be a transition and some people are very attached to cash, but I really think it will go the way of cheques.’

Prof Richard Holden



‘We could transition fully away from cash, I think it could be done in about three years or so—you'd probably start by eliminating the $100 bill and the $50 bill in a year and you work your way through.’



He added that those who used cash to dodge the system were costing honest Australians money.



‘We have very, very high income taxes and if we're leaving several billion dollars a year on the table, by letting tax cheats use cash to evade the taxes the rest of us pay, I just don't have a lot of sympathy for those people,’ he said.





Despite the decline in everyday banknote use, Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced a cash mandate starting in January 2026, which would require businesses to accept cash payments.



‘They're just playing politics,’ Prof Holden said.



‘I'm sure that's been focus grouped to death and that Jim thinks it's a political winner—that's fine, he's a politician, I'm an economist.’



With many banks shutting branches and removing ATMs, Prof Holden suggested Australia Post outlets could offer digital kiosks to help older Australians pay their bills.



‘As far as I'm aware, every town has an Australia Post outlet of some form or another,’ he said.



He dismissed privacy concerns about governments accessing bank records, saying such arguments were more about avoiding the tax office than protecting civil liberties.



‘The government can't just go and get your bank records without the appropriate legal right to do so,’ he said.



‘What are we trying to hide? What's the legitimate purpose of using cash to hide it from the ATO if it's not tax avoidance?’




Source: YouTube/Yahoo Australia





Cash infrastructure under threat as Armaguard struggles



But his call came as serious concerns were raised about Australia’s fragile cash distribution system.



Michelle McPhee, a Reserve Bank assistant governor, said the country’s near-monopoly cash transport company Armaguard was struggling to survive.



‘We saw cash use take a step level down during Covid and that created significant difficulties for those who distribute cash around the economy,’ she told the Economic Society of Australia.



She explained that servicing far-flung towns with dwindling cash demand was proving costly and difficult.



Armaguard, which controls around 90 per cent of the country’s banknote movements, recently merged with Prosegur and received a $25.5 million lifeline from banks, Coles, Woolworths, and Wesfarme


Cash use falls, but circulation hits record highs



Reserve Bank data revealed just 16 per cent of in-person transactions in 2022 were made using cash, fuelling the debate over its future.



Yet paradoxically, the amount of physical cash in circulation reached record highs, with $104.4 billion worth of banknotes currently in use and $245 million issued in just one week.



Cash withdrawals also surged, hitting $9.2 billion in June


The senior cash coalition



The statistics told a compelling story about who would be most affected by any rapid move to eliminate cash.



One in five individuals aged 65 and older still predominantly relied on cash for more than 80 per cent of their transactions.



These weren’t people clinging to outdated habits—they were Australians with legitimate concerns about digital payments.



Baby Boomers, aged 58 and above, had the highest average savings at $61,232, suggesting they had the financial means to adapt to digital payments if they chose to.



The fact that many didn’t spoke to deeper concerns about privacy, security, and simplicity.




Source: YouTube/9 News Australia



National Seniors Australia became a vocal advocate for cash accessibility, launching a ‘Keep Cash’ campaign that resonated with hundreds of thousands of older Australians.



Their concerns extended beyond mere preference—they included legitimate worries about online scams, system outages during natural disasters, and the basic right to financial privacy.



Just over one-quarter of respondents—regardless of how intensively they used cash—reported that they would experience a major inconvenience or genuine hardship if cash was hard to access or use, according to Reserve Bank research.



For a significant portion of the population, cash wasn’t just convenient—it was essential.



Did you know?

Did you know? Several other countries have already implemented cash mandates, including Spain, France, Norway and Denmark. Some US states like Massachusetts and New Jersey have similar laws. Australia wouldn’t be breaking new ground—it would be joining an international trend to protect cash access.




A separate RBA report found only 29 per cent of Australians carried no cash in 2022, meaning the majority still kept notes in their wallets.



Mr Bryce argued this proved ‘that 70 per cent of Aussies carry cash every day’.



Prof Holden, however, maintained that cash was not useful in the kinds of emergencies many thought it was.



‘There's a mass power outage: shops aren't going to be open, supermarkets, convenience stores, nobody opens their shop when the power's out,’ he said.




image1.png
RBA finds majority of Australians carry cash. Source: Pexels/SHVETS production
Disclaimer: This is a stock image used for illustrative purposes only and does not depict the actual person, item, or event described.


What happens next?



The coming months will be crucial for Australia’s cash future.



Armaguard’s funding runs until December, after which major stakeholders must decide whether to continue propping up cash infrastructure or let market forces determine its fate.



Meanwhile, Treasury is consulting on the cash mandate until 14 February 2025, with implementation planned for January 2026.



This timeline puts the government’s protective measures slightly ahead of any resolution to Armaguard’s crisis.



Professor Holden’s three-year elimination timeline seems increasingly unrealistic given political realities.



No government wants to disenfranchise 1.5 million voters, particularly when many of them are seniors who vote reliably.




The cash battleground: what you need to know


Government cash mandate for essential items starts January 2026.


Armaguard’s financial crisis threatens cash infrastructure nationwide.


18% of seniors (65+) are classified as high cash users vs 3% of under-50s.


1 in 5 seniors rely on cash for 80%+ of their transactions.


ATM numbers dropped 11% in just one year (2022–2023).


Over 25% of all Australians would face hardship if cash became difficult to access.




The more likely outcome is a gradual transition to a ‘low cash’ rather than ‘cashless’ society, with cash remaining available for essential purchases and vulnerable populations while digital payments continue to dominate everyday transactions.



What This Means For You


An economics professor argued that Australia could completely phase out cash within just three years, claiming the black economy was costing the government an estimated $10 billion a year in lost GST revenue.



Meanwhile, Armaguard—the country’s largest cash delivery company—needed a $25.5 million bailout just to stay afloat, highlighting the fragility of the system that keeps cash moving. Yet despite predictions that banknotes are on their way out, Australians withdrew a record $9.2 billion in cash this June, proving many still rely on notes and coins in their daily lives.



For older Australians, who have managed money through both change and stability, the question now is whether the nation’s future should be fully digital—or if there’s still a place for the reassurance of cash in hand.







Would you be ready to live in a completely cashless Australia within three years?

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No I am not on favour of a cashless society. I do not trust the Government or Banks to honour any decisions that are made as they change them at times. I prefer to know exactly what I am spending.
 
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I like to use cash at cafes and on the very occasional restaurant visit. They can’t sneak in the tip that some like to do. If I get get good service at a restaurant I will tip but, it will be my choice of how much.
 
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Cashless is not the way to go and it’s just another ‘control the people’ Labor agenda. Low cash would be far better ie highest note $10. We still want cash for roadside stalls and cheap markets, money for children’s lunches and pocket money etc. If the internet goes down, no one can buy anything, so we all keep a reserve stash for those occasions.
If the government think they’ll stop huge cash transactions by criminals, well they will just transfer money offshore and access from here.
Labor Agenda? This has been talked about for years!
 
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So, I go to a monthly meeting where there is a payment for afternoon tea, a raffle, a trading table and an annual joining fee...NO electronic payments there!
 
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A few stores I have been to gave discounts if I used cash instead of card and this is in different states of Australia. They explained the charges they have to pay to the bank to have the machine in their workplace. I am happy to use cash as I know how much I spend. Leave cash alone.
 
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I'm one of those annoying people who doesn't use cash. I do have some in my purse but it's been there so long it's probably covered in cobwebs by now and don't ask me how much it is, I wouldn't have a clue! I drive an electric car so I don't have any fuel payments and about 99% of all my payments are done online. The other 1% is done by swiping my card at the point of payment. Works for me!
Till the internet goes down and you can’t buy anything
 
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No. I don't care what the so called experts say/think. If you fully eradicate cash and technology fails, has an outage etc. there is no plan B to pay for goods/services....where then does that leave retailers etc??
 
We need to keep cash! I'm no economist but in my opinion if more people used cash then Armaguard probably wouldn't need propping up by major customers, also doesn't Linfox own Armaguard? Maybe he could take a little less profit to keep it a viable part of his empire. I believe if we get rid of cash the banks and government will pretty much have total control of our everyday lives, and it will be a huge privacy concern to everyone. They infiltrate our lives a lot now already through social media outlets etc., a cashless society would do exactly the same thing. l for one don't want the banks and government to know where l go, what l do, what I eat, when l put fuel in my car etc. etc. etc. I may sound like a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but I think all these people advocating a cashless society have their own agendas. I'd also love to know how much the politicians have got stashed away as well, I bet those figures would be astounding!!
Politics is a bit like going to the horse races and having a form guide with all the winners already marked off.

If a politician has a career of 30 years and their average annual income is $250,000, it works out to 7,500,000 Gross. I would asking how some politicians were able to pay tax, raise a family, and leverage the remaining net income into tens of millions. One of the things I notice about the internet is it is getting 'cagey'.

Not to long ago, there was a politician whose net worth was estimated at around 80 million. Nowadays, that same politician's net worth is estimated at around $5 million... which is roughly the 'net' figure of a estimated 30 year gross income.

I think we're in a honeymoon period. The banks gave up charging $1.00 per transaction as a part of a strategy to encourage people to use electronic banking.

It is somewhat akin to the local drug dealer handing out free samples to get the neighbourhood 'addicted' and 'hooked'. As you've rightly said, companies like Armaguard are now transporting less cash than previously.

The banks are also closing a lot of branches, which subtly drives people toward the 'lounge room convenience' of online banking. When there are no nearby banks, people have no other choice than to use online banking or the local Post Office.

Eventually, this will add up to a justification; 'we don't need cash because everybody is using a cashless transaction system.' The financial sector will then cite the cost and loss of profit in maintaining a cashless system. Then, a favourable Government will set Australia on the cashless path.
 
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Not one reference to the huge nation wide Optus network collapse. It's not a question of if it will happen again, it's when. Mark my words.
Power was still on but no Optus network so phones and using cards to pay was out.
Interesting how people forget.
 
I for one could live with a Cash regime of $5, $10 and $20 notes only. How about you.
That means that ALL items will cost a minimum of $5 and in multiples of $5.

Would you pay $5 for a one kg bag of cooking salt?
 
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I believe the next step in controlling our finances will not be to far into the near future. I am talking about implants of chip devise, that will be by way of surgery, inserted under the skin of one's arm. This chip will then only have to be scanned to create a transaction. No cash, no transaction cards, no more scams, no more theft. It sounds so futuristic, but so was the internet, the smart watch, the Telstra, solar lights and so on. 🙏🦋
 
I believe the next step in controlling our finances will not be to far into the near future. I am talking about implants of chip devise, that will be by way of surgery, inserted under the skin of one's arm. This chip will then only have to be scanned to create a transaction. No cash, no transaction cards, no more scams, no more theft. It sounds so futuristic, but so was the internet, the smart watch, the Telstra, solar lights and so on. 🙏🦋
They were talking about chipping humans years ago ,and you can bet it will happen.
 
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What will happen to our most vulnerable, such as victims of domestic violence. If the victim needs to escape, and they have no cash and the husband has control over all finances, and blocks the transaction card, what does the woman walk out with. Nothing, but the clothes on her back. That's why women who will not have access to cash, will be more hessitant to leave than they are now. Clearly it is the male domain that are purshing for a cashless society, who have not taken this dangerous issue into account. 🙏🦋
 
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