The COVID-19 pandemic has been a defining global health crisis of our time, and its effects are set to ripple through Australian society for years to come.

While we've all been hoping for a return to the ‘old normal’, recent findings suggest that the pandemic's impact on mortality rates is far from over.

This ongoing situation underscores the importance of understanding and addressing the broader consequences of the pandemic on overall health outcomes.


According to a sobering report released by the Actuaries Institute on Monday, July 22, Australia has seen a significant number of ‘excess’ deaths in 2023, with 8,400 more fatalities than would have been expected under pre-pandemic conditions.

This figure, while distressing, is a decrease from the 20,000 ‘excess’ deaths recorded in 2022, indicating that the situation is improving, albeit slowly.


Of the additional deaths in 2023, 4,600 were directly attributed to COVID-19, while another 1,500 were linked to the virus, suggesting that the pandemic's toll extends beyond the immediate illness.

The institute's mortality working group noted that while there was a significant decrease in excess deaths between the two years, the 2023 rate remained higher than the levels seen during severe flu seasons before the pandemic.


Karen Cutter, an actuary of the institute's mortality working group, warned, ‘We think COVID-19 is likely to cause some excess mortality for several years to come, either as a direct cause of death or a contributing factor to other causes such as heart disease.’

‘In our view, the “new normal” level of mortality is likely to be higher than it would have been if we hadn't had the pandemic.’

Australian National University Epidemiology Lecturer Rezanur Rahaman stated that a higher death rate might persist as factors like vaccination rates and vaccine effectiveness are continually addressed.

‘It could be said that the excess deaths will continue for some time as it is a highly contagious respiratory pathogen that will not die out anytime soon,’ he explained.


However, University of Technology Sydney bio-statistics professor Andrew Hayen pointed out that the report revealed the age-standardised death rate in 2023 was nearly identical to that of 2019.

‘We've already witnessed a considerable decline in excess deaths as measured by the Actuaries Institute (and) we are likely to see a continued decline in mortality, particularly due to COVID,’ he said.

According to Professor Hayen, it was challenging to attribute deaths directly to post-COVID effects rather than to the reduction in healthcare during the pandemic.

‘Many of the deaths in 2022 were probably due to mortality displacement, and there may also be issues relating to pressures on emergency services and delays in standard care, like elective surgery rates,’ he explained.

‘However, it's not possible to attribute exactly what proportion is attributable to putative causes.’

The actuaries' report found that, when compared with 40 other countries, Australia's excess death rate of five per cent from 2020 to 2023 was relatively low, as the global average was 11 per cent.


As Australia grapples with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess death rates, another pressing issue has emerged: a decline in life expectancy.

This shift in health and demographics has prompted many to reflect on the broader implications for public health and ageing in the country.

Understanding these trends can provide valuable insights into how Australians can navigate their changing health landscape and make informed decisions about their well-being.
Have you or your loved ones faced delays in medical care? Have you noticed changes in the healthcare system that concern you? Let's open up the conversation in the comments below.