Experts reveal shocking prediction: Australian pension age could hit 70 by 2050!

Dark clouds loom on the horizon for Aussie pensioners, although luckily, the storm is further away than first thought. According to new research published in the prestigious Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Australians born after January 1957 could soon face a considerable retirement obstacle.

From July 1, 2023, anyone born after January 1957 will need to wait until they reach 67 years of age to claim the pension. It’s part of the Liberal party’s original 2014 Federal Budget plan to try and keep the country’s pension system viable, and it looks like they’re only getting started.



New modelling by Macquarie University statistician Professor Hanlin Shang and his colleagues has predicted something a little more alarming than the rise to 67. If their prediction is correct, we could likely be looking at increasing the pension age to 70 years by the year 2050.


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Is your retirement plan at risk? Image Credit: Shutterstock



Why are the experts making such a potentially disheartening call? As Professor Shang has uncovered, one cause behind it is our current ‘state of population’. Recent statistics revealed that Australia’s birth rate is at a historic low, which means fewer people are entering the workforce – a stark contrast to the increasing numbers in the population over the pension age.

'Less people in the working group and more in retirement will make the old age dependency ratio (OADR) higher. What this means is there is less working people to support elderly people. And with more elderly people in the population, this will create a burden for the government pension system,' Professor Shang says.



To try and bring the all-important OADR value of 23% back to a viable level, Professor Shang’s models suggest that the pension age should be increased to 68 years by 2030, 69 years by 2036 and 70 years by 2050.

The reasoning behind it makes sense, although it doesn’t make the news any easier to swallow. As Professor Shang points out, 'Thanks to advancements in medicine and technology, people are living longer, although not necessarily healthier. The number of people working is decreasing, and birth rates are low. In 1961, the total birth rate was 3.5 babies per female. In 2020, this was 1.58.'

So, unfortunately, it does look like more changes to the pension age are on the way. We can only hope that our Government will pay careful attention to the situation and take a more gradual approach to any increases instead of rushing in like the frenzied situation recently seen in France.



Key Takeaways
  • Expert modelling suggests that the Australian pension age should be increased to 70 by 2050, which is 15 years later than the original Liberal party plan from 2014.
  • Australia's low birth rate and an ageing population are contributing to an increased old-age dependency ratio, putting a burden on the government pension system.
  • The recommended increase to the pension age involves a gradual trajectory to maintain the old-age dependency ratio at 23%, with target ages of 68 by 2030 and 69 by 2036.
  • Potential solutions to support the pension age and system include increasing the total fertility rate through government policies and increasing the number of migrants to Australia.
If you’re already on the age pension, then it's likely that this change won't affect you too much, but some members might like to think about putting away extra money into their superannuation so that they can enjoy their golden years without needing to worry.

Will this change impact you? Do you have any thoughts or opinions on increasing the pension age? We would love to hear from you in the comments.
 
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I am a pcw in a high care care facility . If i had to work until 70 i would retire into s care facility from physical and mental exhaustion
 
When I started working at18yrs old in 1978 the retirement age for women was 60, men 65, returned service men 60, now it is up for grabs. I think that people who work as Paramedics, Police, Firemen/women you know those very mentally challenging , stressful jobs and labour intensive should retire at 60, luckily they still consider that you have done your bit for a returned service man because they still retire at 60. Maybe they should STOP paying the blood sucking retired Politicians all the perks they get when they leave, I should think that their MASSIVE Super should be enough for them to live on, unlike us mere mortals who have actually worked for a living and gone through a lot of ups and downs during our working life. Maybe also they should start looking at the younger people who have been unemployed for longer than 1 year and get them into the work force instead of paying them MORE to sit on their arses and do NOTHING for their money, or get them Volunteering, or and I personally like this one bring back CONSCRIPTION for those on the long term unemployment list.
I was at Centrelink the other day to hand in some paperwork, the young man that was was there had brand new latest shoes on and a IPhone that I can not afford. It shows that they are getting more money than he should be getting.
 
I was at Centrelink the other day to hand in some paperwork, the young man that was was there had brand new latest shoes on and a IPhone that I can not afford. It shows that they are getting more money than he should be getting.
I said that on one of my post's and the shit I got from others on this site was ridiculous, they have and your right the latest phone, smoke, tattoos, latest brand clothes, drink and drive around visiting friends, I know I have seen it myself.
 

Dark clouds loom on the horizon for Aussie pensioners, although luckily, the storm is further away than first thought. According to new research published in the prestigious Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Australians born after January 1957 could soon face a considerable retirement obstacle.

From July 1, 2023, anyone born after January 1957 will need to wait until they reach 67 years of age to claim the pension. It’s part of the Liberal party’s original 2014 Federal Budget plan to try and keep the country’s pension system viable, and it looks like they’re only getting started.



New modelling by Macquarie University statistician Professor Hanlin Shang and his colleagues has predicted something a little more alarming than the rise to 67. If their prediction is correct, we could likely be looking at increasing the pension age to 70 years by the year 2050.


View attachment 21086
Is your retirement plan at risk? Image Credit: Shutterstock



Why are the experts making such a potentially disheartening call? As Professor Shang has uncovered, one cause behind it is our current ‘state of population’. Recent statistics revealed that Australia’s birth rate is at a historic low, which means fewer people are entering the workforce – a stark contrast to the increasing numbers in the population over the pension age.

'Less people in the working group and more in retirement will make the old age dependency ratio (OADR) higher. What this means is there is less working people to support elderly people. And with more elderly people in the population, this will create a burden for the government pension system,' Professor Shang says.



To try and bring the all-important OADR value of 23% back to a viable level, Professor Shang’s models suggest that the pension age should be increased to 68 years by 2030, 69 years by 2036 and 70 years by 2050.

The reasoning behind it makes sense, although it doesn’t make the news any easier to swallow. As Professor Shang points out, 'Thanks to advancements in medicine and technology, people are living longer, although not necessarily healthier. The number of people working is decreasing, and birth rates are low. In 1961, the total birth rate was 3.5 babies per female. In 2020, this was 1.58.'

So, unfortunately, it does look like more changes to the pension age are on the way. We can only hope that our Government will pay careful attention to the situation and take a more gradual approach to any increases instead of rushing in like the frenzied situation recently seen in France.



Key Takeaways

  • Expert modelling suggests that the Australian pension age should be increased to 70 by 2050, which is 15 years later than the original Liberal party plan from 2014.
  • Australia's low birth rate and an ageing population are contributing to an increased old-age dependency ratio, putting a burden on the government pension system.
  • The recommended increase to the pension age involves a gradual trajectory to maintain the old-age dependency ratio at 23%, with target ages of 68 by 2030 and 69 by 2036.
  • Potential solutions to support the pension age and system include increasing the total fertility rate through government policies and increasing the number of migrants to Australia.
If you’re already on the age pension, then it's likely that this change won't affect you too much, but some members might like to think about putting away extra money into their superannuation so that they can enjoy their golden years without needing to worry.

Will this change impact you? Do you have any thoughts or opinions on increasing the pension age? We would love to hear from you in the comments.
Working arse off most all your life to try to survive & all very well to say put more into super, but for many there just isnt any spare money to put extra in superannuation, especially with wage growth being so low (& theres a limit on salary sacrifice contributions without being penalized for that as well anyway!)

It just all stinks, the cost of living in todays society is ridiculous compared to a generation ago when life was much more simple.
The ones that keep squeezing the hell out of us with all these changes are the ones that are least affected by them (ie politicians & their wealthy cronies with all their lurks & perks & generous super/retirement packages sitting on their big lazy fat butts in their fancy offices, who have no clue what its like to do a hard physical manual labour type job as they start ageing/edging toward current retirement age (& some well before then- what happens to them? Just wrong how people are treated now, thru no fault of their own (quite likely partly caused by immigration overload (decisions not made by us) as well as shonkies bleeding the Centrlink system- paid by our taxes perhaps has severely drained the pension/welfare fund coffers to a point where those most deserving get told they are on their own now whilst others continue to be a drain on our taxes? More than just a little unfair i think!
 
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I got sick when I was 47, luckily for me I have a very understanding husband who was more concerned about my health than my income. We lost quite a lot of my super in one of those crashes we had to have and it never really recovered by the time I was old enough to be a self funded retiree (what a joke that is) then they move the goal posts and change the retirement age anyway; isn't that a bonus. You know what?
We are always going to lose, they don't listen to seniors on any subject because aren't we a bunch of dottering old fools; what would we know?
Well said!
 

Dark clouds loom on the horizon for Aussie pensioners, although luckily, the storm is further away than first thought. According to new research published in the prestigious Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Australians born after January 1957 could soon face a considerable retirement obstacle.

From July 1, 2023, anyone born after January 1957 will need to wait until they reach 67 years of age to claim the pension. It’s part of the Liberal party’s original 2014 Federal Budget plan to try and keep the country’s pension system viable, and it looks like they’re only getting started.



New modelling by Macquarie University statistician Professor Hanlin Shang and his colleagues has predicted something a little more alarming than the rise to 67. If their prediction is correct, we could likely be looking at increasing the pension age to 70 years by the year 2050.


View attachment 21086
Is your retirement plan at risk? Image Credit: Shutterstock



Why are the experts making such a potentially disheartening call? As Professor Shang has uncovered, one cause behind it is our current ‘state of population’. Recent statistics revealed that Australia’s birth rate is at a historic low, which means fewer people are entering the workforce – a stark contrast to the increasing numbers in the population over the pension age.

'Less people in the working group and more in retirement will make the old age dependency ratio (OADR) higher. What this means is there is less working people to support elderly people. And with more elderly people in the population, this will create a burden for the government pension system,' Professor Shang says.



To try and bring the all-important OADR value of 23% back to a viable level, Professor Shang’s models suggest that the pension age should be increased to 68 years by 2030, 69 years by 2036 and 70 years by 2050.

The reasoning behind it makes sense, although it doesn’t make the news any easier to swallow. As Professor Shang points out, 'Thanks to advancements in medicine and technology, people are living longer, although not necessarily healthier. The number of people working is decreasing, and birth rates are low. In 1961, the total birth rate was 3.5 babies per female. In 2020, this was 1.58.'

So, unfortunately, it does look like more changes to the pension age are on the way. We can only hope that our Government will pay careful attention to the situation and take a more gradual approach to any increases instead of rushing in like the frenzied situation recently seen in France.



Key Takeaways

  • Expert modelling suggests that the Australian pension age should be increased to 70 by 2050, which is 15 years later than the original Liberal party plan from 2014.
  • Australia's low birth rate and an ageing population are contributing to an increased old-age dependency ratio, putting a burden on the government pension system.
  • The recommended increase to the pension age involves a gradual trajectory to maintain the old-age dependency ratio at 23%, with target ages of 68 by 2030 and 69 by 2036.
  • Potential solutions to support the pension age and system include increasing the total fertility rate through government policies and increasing the number of migrants to Australia.
If you’re already on the age pension, then it's likely that this change won't affect you too much, but some members might like to think about putting away extra money into their superannuation so that they can enjoy their golden years without needing to worry.

Will this change impact you? Do you have any thoughts or opinions on increasing the pension age? We would love to hear from you in the comments.
It's all good for these computer 🖥 junkies but a person doing manual labour has no hope of making it to retirement they will be burnt out and the hospital system would be in crisis when I started worl in the mid seventies the retirement age was 55 years old and it's been going up ever since 60 ,65,now 671/2 for me at 63 years old a self-funded retirey waiting for proper retirement at 671/2 year's
 
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Reactions: Cheezil
QUOTE="Robbo3006, post: 210383, member: 40669"]
If the government left the pension fund money alone that we paid into since after the war we wouldn't have this problem, trillions of dollars went from pension fund to tax revenue and DISAPPEARED, our government is a disgrace, they work for Us but treat Us like plebians.
[/QUOTE]
I totally agree. I am not sure how many people know they have for most of their working life actually paid tax into the pension fund, that was to fund their retirement. The previous governments STOLE that money, trillions of dollars, and used it for other purposes. It's the same as medicare, our taxes went up to fund
Medicare and what a shamozzle that is.
Don't get me started on single mums.
I have mentioned before about my step daughters. All in their 50's now,have bludger off the taxpayer their whole lives, with 5 kids each, none of them were ever single, always living with some low life, breeding like flies, then when too old for single mums pensions went on jobseeker and there they have stayed their whole working lives. All of their friends are the same, and now all the grandies are doing the same, 18 great grandies, all parents collecting welfare and so it goes on. No checks and balances in place, even when I advised details to Centrelink many years ago, nothing changed. I don't think anybody even checked
We no longer have any relationship with them, they are a disgrace and so is our government for letting them and the tbousands like them all over the country get away with it.
 
It's all good for these computer 🖥 junkies but a person doing manual labour has no hope of making it to retirement they will be burnt out and the hospital system would be in crisis when I started worl in the mid seventies the retirement age was 55 years old and it's been going up ever since 60 ,65,now 671/2 for me at 63 years old a self-funded retirey waiting for proper retirement at 671/2 year's
Agree, 62 soon & cant wait to be pension age & slow down a little
 

Dark clouds loom on the horizon for Aussie pensioners, although luckily, the storm is further away than first thought. According to new research published in the prestigious Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Australians born after January 1957 could soon face a considerable retirement obstacle.

From July 1, 2023, anyone born after January 1957 will need to wait until they reach 67 years of age to claim the pension. It’s part of the Liberal party’s original 2014 Federal Budget plan to try and keep the country’s pension system viable, and it looks like they’re only getting started.



New modelling by Macquarie University statistician Professor Hanlin Shang and his colleagues has predicted something a little more alarming than the rise to 67. If their prediction is correct, we could likely be looking at increasing the pension age to 70 years by the year 2050.


View attachment 21086
Is your retirement plan at risk? Image Credit: Shutterstock



Why are the experts making such a potentially disheartening call? As Professor Shang has uncovered, one cause behind it is our current ‘state of population’. Recent statistics revealed that Australia’s birth rate is at a historic low, which means fewer people are entering the workforce – a stark contrast to the increasing numbers in the population over the pension age.

'Less people in the working group and more in retirement will make the old age dependency ratio (OADR) higher. What this means is there is less working people to support elderly people. And with more elderly people in the population, this will create a burden for the government pension system,' Professor Shang says.



To try and bring the all-important OADR value of 23% back to a viable level, Professor Shang’s models suggest that the pension age should be increased to 68 years by 2030, 69 years by 2036 and 70 years by 2050.

The reasoning behind it makes sense, although it doesn’t make the news any easier to swallow. As Professor Shang points out, 'Thanks to advancements in medicine and technology, people are living longer, although not necessarily healthier. The number of people working is decreasing, and birth rates are low. In 1961, the total birth rate was 3.5 babies per female. In 2020, this was 1.58.'

So, unfortunately, it does look like more changes to the pension age are on the way. We can only hope that our Government will pay careful attention to the situation and take a more gradual approach to any increases instead of rushing in like the frenzied situation recently seen in France.



Key Takeaways

  • Expert modelling suggests that the Australian pension age should be increased to 70 by 2050, which is 15 years later than the original Liberal party plan from 2014.
  • Australia's low birth rate and an ageing population are contributing to an increased old-age dependency ratio, putting a burden on the government pension system.
  • The recommended increase to the pension age involves a gradual trajectory to maintain the old-age dependency ratio at 23%, with target ages of 68 by 2030 and 69 by 2036.
  • Potential solutions to support the pension age and system include increasing the total fertility rate through government policies and increasing the number of migrants to Australia.
If you’re already on the age pension, then it's likely that this change won't affect you too much, but some members might like to think about putting away extra money into their superannuation so that they can enjoy their golden years without needing to worry.

Will this change impact you? Do you have any thoughts or opinions on increasing the pension age? We would love to hear from you in the comments.
Let’s hope you don’t have any major health issues …Be nice to be able to enjoy retirement, the rate I’m going I’ll be 80 not out before I will end up being able to retire…stop moving the goal posts
 
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Reactions: Cheezil
You gotta be joking 70 years. Ok if your health is good & you want to keep working. But for tradies who have worked hard their health won’t hold out. Maybe make the politicians wait till they turn 67-70.
 

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