When you hear that Victoria's prisons are sitting at just 70 per cent capacity while crime rates hit their highest levels in over a decade, you might wonder if something's gone seriously wrong with the justice system.
Now, a controversial proposal to lease those empty cells to other states has sparked outrage across Victoria, with many asking why local criminals aren't filling those beds instead.
The latest official figures paint a stark picture: criminal incidents in Victoria jumped to 483,583 in the year to June 2025—an 18.3 per cent increase from the previous year, while more recent data shows criminal offences reached 627,268 by March 2025, up a staggering 20.1 per cent.
Yet according to research from the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA), Victoria's prisons are running significantly under capacity.
The numbers that don't add up
The crime rate now stands at 6,814 incidents per 100,000 Victorians—a 16.3 per cent jump from 2024 and the highest level recorded in more than a decade, with overall offence rates reaching 8,838.7 per 100,000 people by March 2025.
'I'm sure many Victorians are quite surprised that their prisons aren't full, especially given the context of the crime crises that we're seeing on our street'
Despite these rising crime rates, Victoria Police have been working overtime, making record numbers of arrests—73,539 arrests in 2024 alone, and by March 2025, they'd arrested 25,917 people a combined 75,968 times, equivalent to 208 arrests per day. So where are all these arrested criminals going?
The controversial cash grab proposal
The IPA has suggested Victoria could earn approximately $290 million annually by leasing empty prison cells to Queensland and South Australia. The proposal hinges on the fact that the most common and fastest-growing crime is theft from motor vehicle, with 75,731 offences recorded, including over 27,000 cases of number plate theft—yet many offenders aren't ending up behind bars.
Prison economics 101
Cost to house a prisoner: $600 per day
Marginal cost of adding an extra prisoner: $445.43 per day
Potential revenue from leasing 20 per cent of capacity: $289.8 million annually
Current prison occupancy: Approximately 70 per cent
IPA research fellow Mia Schlicht argues this could be a win-win situation, generating revenue that could fund more police officers while helping other states manage their overcrowded facilities. But Victorians aren't buying it.
Source: ABC News (Australia) / Youtube.
Community backlash grows
The proposal has struck a nerve with Victorians who feel their safety is being compromised for profit. Social media has exploded with criticism, with many echoing the sentiment of social media user Adam Scholte, who said: 'I'd rather the criminals—the hardened criminals breaking the law, getting out on bail time and time again—to be imprisoned, not out on bail.'
The statistics reveal a troubling pattern: while the number of unique child offenders actually decreased by 3 per cent, repeat offenders increased by 4.9 per cent, with 330 hardened young offenders arrested three or more times for serious crimes including home invasions and car thefts.
What this means for your safety
For many seniors, these statistics translate into real concerns about daily safety. Theft from motor vehicles topped the crime list, with power tools being the second most stolen item after number plates—items that directly affect older Australians' mobility and security.
Crime trends affecting seniors most
- Theft from motor vehicles up significantly (particularly concerning for medical equipment, mobility aids)
- Home invasions continuing despite record arrests
- Repeat offenders being released on bail multiple times
- Property crimes surging during cost-of-living pressures
Unlawful entry with intent (burglary) affected 45,895 Victorians in 2024, up 25 per cent from the previous year—the highest number since 2016. These aren't just statistics; they represent real families and individuals whose sense of security has been shattered.
The bail law controversy
Premier Jacinta Allan's government introduced tougher bail laws on 28 March 2025, making it harder for repeat offenders to be released back into the community. However, the impact of these changes isn't evident in the current reporting period, given they only came into effect on 28 March.
Victoria Police has welcomed these bail changes, stating that the level of child and youth offending recidivism is 'completely unacceptable'. The question remains: will these changes actually result in more prisoners filling those empty cells, or will the pattern continue?
Financial pressures drive desperate measures
The proposal highlights Victoria's dire financial situation. Mia Schlicht didn't mince words: 'The reality is, this state is broke. There is no more money, and we know that the best way to deter crime is to put more police on the streets, but we don't have money to do so.'
Did you know?
Did you know?
The Western Plains Correctional Centre in Geelong cost $1 billion to construct but sat empty for two years, costing taxpayers $36 million annually just to keep the facility operational during that period.
Looking ahead: Short-term solution or long-term problem?
The IPA acknowledges their proposal is only a 'short-term' solution to Victoria's 'costly but underutilised prison system.' Inevitably, governments will need to address the capacity challenge by either building new facilities at significant cost or reforming sentencing practices for non-violent offenders.
Meanwhile, Victorians are left wondering why their tax dollars are maintaining empty prison cells while they feel increasingly unsafe in their own communities. The proposal might generate revenue, but it's also generated something the government probably didn't want: a spotlight on the disconnect between rising crime and prison occupancy rates.
What's your take on this controversial proposal? Do you think Victoria should be housing interstate prisoners while local crime rates soar, or could this be a smart way to fund better policing? Share your thoughts and experiences about community safety in the comments below.
Primary Source
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15172061/Victoria-prisoner-crime-interstate.html
Homepage | Crime Statistics Agency Victoria
Cited text: The number of criminal incidents recorded by Victoria Police in the year to 30 June 2025 was 483,583, up 18.3 per cent from 408,930 incidents recorded in the ...
Excerpt: The latest official figures paint a stark picture: criminal incidents in Victoria jumped to 483,583 in the year to June 2025—an 18…
https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/
Key Figures: Year ending March 2025 | Crime Statistics Agency Victoria
Cited text: The number of criminal incidents recorded by Victoria Police in the year to 31 March 2025 was 474,937, up 20.1 per cent from 395,313 incidents recorded in the...
Excerpt: The latest official figures paint a stark picture: criminal incidents in Victoria jumped to 483,583 in the year to June 2025—an 18…
https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/media-centre/news/key-figures-year-ending-march-2025
Homepage | Crime Statistics Agency Victoria
Cited text: View the map · 16.3 per cent 5,859.7 · Jun 2024 · 6,814.0 · Jun 2025 · 13.8 per cent 7,910.5 · Jun 2024 · 8,998.9 · Jun 2025 · 25 September 2025 · The number of crimi...
Excerpt: The crime rate now stands at 6,814 incidents per 100,000 Victorians—a 16.3 per cent jump from 2024 and the highest level recorded in more than a decade, with overall offence rates reaching 8,838.7 per 100,000 people by March 2025
https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/
Crime in Victoria—Wikipedia
Cited text: According to data from the Crime Statistics Agency, the overall offence rate rose to 8,838.7 per 100,000 people in the year ending March 2025, the hig...
Excerpt: The crime rate now stands at 6,814 incidents per 100,000 Victorians—a 16.3 per cent jump from 2024 and the highest level recorded in more than a decade, with overall offence rates reaching 8,838.7 per 100,000 people by March 2025
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Victoria
Victoria Police Responds to 2024 Crime Data Release | Mirage News
Cited text: In 2024, Victoria Police made the most arrests since electronic records commenced in 1993—26,519 people were arrested a total of 73,539 times.
Excerpt: Despite these rising crime rates, Victoria Police have been working overtime, making record numbers of arrests—73,539 arrests in 2024 alone, and by March 2025, they'd arrested 25,917 people a combined 75,968 times, equivalent to 208…
https://www.miragenews.com/victoria-police-responds-to-2024-crime-data-1429009/
Victoria Police Responds to March 2025 Crime Stats Data | Mirage News
Cited text: For a third consecutive quarter, Victoria Police recorded the most arrests since electronic records began in 1993, and most likely, in Victoria Police...
Excerpt: Despite these rising crime rates, Victoria Police have been working overtime, making record numbers of arrests—73,539 arrests in 2024 alone, and by March 2025, they'd arrested 25,917 people a combined 75,968 times, equivalent to 208…
https://www.miragenews.com/victoria-police-responds-to-march-2025-crime-1480725/
Victoria Police Responds to 2024 Crime Data Release | Mirage News
Cited text: ... • Theft from motor vehicle (75,731 offences, +18,929) is both the most common and fastest growing crime. More than a third of these offences relat...
Excerpt: the most common and fastest-growing crime is theft from motor vehicle, with 75,731 offences recorded, including over 27,000 cases of number plate theft
https://www.miragenews.com/victoria-police-responds-to-2024-crime-data-1429009/
Victoria Police Responds to 2024 Crime Data Release | Mirage News
Cited text: • The number of unique child offenders actually decreased by 3 per cent, however the total number of repeat offenders increased by 4.9 per cent. In simple terms, ther...
Excerpt: The statistics reveal a troubling pattern: while the number of unique child offenders actually decreased by 3 per cent, repeat offenders increased by 4…
https://www.miragenews.com/victoria-police-responds-to-2024-crime-data-1429009/
Victoria Police Responds to 2024 Crime Data Release | Mirage News
Cited text: • This includes 330 hardened young offenders arrested three or more times for committing serious and violent crimes such as breaking into homes, steal...
Excerpt: The statistics reveal a troubling pattern: while the number of unique child offenders actually decreased by 3 per cent, repeat offenders increased by 4…
https://www.miragenews.com/victoria-police-responds-to-2024-crime-data-1429009/
Victoria Police Responds to 2024 Crime Data Release | Mirage News
Cited text: ... • Theft from motor vehicle (75,731 offences, +18,929) is both the most common and fastest growing crime.
Excerpt: Theft from motor vehicles topped the crime list, with power tools being the second most stolen item after number plates
https://www.miragenews.com/victoria-police-responds-to-2024-crime-data-1429009/
Victoria Police Responds to 2024 Crime Data Release | Mirage News
Cited text: Power tools were the second most stolen item.
Excerpt: Theft from motor vehicles topped the crime list, with power tools being the second most stolen item after number plates
https://www.miragenews.com/victoria-police-responds-to-2024-crime-data-1429009/
Recorded Crime—Victims, 2024 | Australian Bureau of Statistics
Cited text: In 2024, there were 45,895 victims of unlawful entry with intent recorded in Victoria, an increase of 25 per cent (9,243 victims) from the previous year. This...
Excerpt: Unlawful entry with intent (burglary) affected 45,895 Victorians in 2024, up 25 per cent from the previous year—the highest number since 2016
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-victims/latest-release
Victoria Police Responds to March 2025 Crime Stats Data | Mirage News
Cited text: The impact caused by the first tranche of changes to bail laws is not evident in this reporting period, given these only came into effect on 28 March....
Excerpt: the impact of these changes isn't evident in the current reporting period, given they only came into effect on 28 March
https://www.miragenews.com/victoria-police-responds-to-march-2025-crime-1480725/
Victoria Police Responds to 2024 Crime Data Release | Mirage News
Cited text: • Victoria Police has been very clear that this level of child and youth offending recidivism is completely unacceptable and as a result, welcomes the...
Excerpt: Victoria Police has welcomed these bail changes, stating that the level of child and youth offending recidivism is 'completely unacceptable'
https://www.miragenews.com/victoria-police-responds-to-2024-crime-data-1429009/
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