City-destroying asteroid to collide with Earth? Discover impact timeline
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The thought of a 'city-destroying' asteroid hurtling towards Earth might sound like the plot of a Hollywood blockbuster.
Still, it's a scenario that has captured the scientific community's attention.
Recently, astronomers have identified an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 that has a small but concerning chance of colliding with our planet within the next decade.
This near-Earth object (NEO), which measures nearly 200 feet in width, has been calculated to have a 1.2 per cent probability of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032.
While the odds may seem low, the potential consequences are significant enough to warrant close monitoring.
The size of 2024 YR4 is reminiscent of the Tunguska event's asteroid, which 1908 caused the most significant impact event in recorded history.
The Tunguska asteroid exploded in an 'air burst' over Siberia, releasing energy equivalent to 50 million tons of TNT and flattening an estimated 80 million trees across 830 square miles of forest.
Although only three casualties were reported, the devastation was immense.
If 2024 YR4 were to make contact with Earth, it could unleash a similar level of destruction, mainly if it were to land in or near a densely populated area.
The asteroid's projected path brings it within approximately 66,000 miles of our planet, but due to orbital uncertainties, there's a slight chance it could directly hit Earth.
Upon its discovery, 2024 YR4 quickly rose to prominence on NASA's automated Sentry risk list, which ranks NEOs based on their likelihood of colliding with Earth.
The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) first spotted the asteroid.
This NASA-funded project scans the sky for moving objects with four ground-based telescopes.
The ATLAS telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, detected the space rock on 27 December 2024, about 27 million miles away.
Automated asteroid warning systems have since determined that the object will closely approach Earth in about eight years.
2024 YR4 has been rated a three on the Torino risk scale, categorising potential Earth impact events.
A score of three indicates that astronomers should closely observe the asteroid due to its likelihood of a close encounter with Earth and its impact chance of over one per cent.
However, experts still don't know much about 2024 YR4, making it challenging to assess its danger fully.
Factors such as the asteroid's size, composition, and the exact location of impact are crucial in determining the potential damage.
David Rankin, an engineer and asteroid hunter with the Catalina Sky Survey, has urged the public not to worry prematurely.
'Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us,' he told Space.com.
Rankin also mentioned that the current 'risk corridor,' the geographical area where the asteroid is most likely to hit, spans from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa.
However, this corridor could change with new observations and improved orbit calculations.
Astronomers are currently unable to use radar observations to accurately measure 2024 YR4's size, as it is too far away.
They may be able to perform these observations in 2028 when the asteroid passes within roughly 5 million miles of Earth.
In the meantime, astronomers must rely on the asteroid's absolute magnitude, or brightness, to estimate its size indirectly.
This method provides a rough diameter of 196 feet, but the estimate is contingent on the asteroid's surface reflectivity, which is unknown.
The composition of 2024 YR4 is also a significant factor in predicting its behaviour should it enter Earth's atmosphere.
A stony material could result in a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground.
At the same time, an iron composition could lead to the asteroid piercing through the atmosphere and creating an impact crater.
With 2024 YR4 identified as a potential, albeit unlikely, threat, the scientific community is racing to gather as much information as possible before 2032.
This knowledge will be crucial in preparing for potential impacts and developing risk mitigation strategies.
For our readers, while the prospect of an asteroid impact is certainly alarming, it's important to remember that space agencies and astronomers around the world are constantly monitoring the skies to protect our planet.
The chances of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth are slim, but the situation underscores the importance of investing in space research and planetary defence.
Have you ever wondered about the measures to protect Earth from asteroids? Please share your thoughts and questions in the comments below, and let's discuss the fascinating world of planetary defence and space exploration.
Still, it's a scenario that has captured the scientific community's attention.
Recently, astronomers have identified an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 that has a small but concerning chance of colliding with our planet within the next decade.
This near-Earth object (NEO), which measures nearly 200 feet in width, has been calculated to have a 1.2 per cent probability of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032.
While the odds may seem low, the potential consequences are significant enough to warrant close monitoring.
The size of 2024 YR4 is reminiscent of the Tunguska event's asteroid, which 1908 caused the most significant impact event in recorded history.
A newly discovered 'city-destroying' asteroid, 2024 YR4, is said to have a 1.2 per cent chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032. Credit: Facebook
The Tunguska asteroid exploded in an 'air burst' over Siberia, releasing energy equivalent to 50 million tons of TNT and flattening an estimated 80 million trees across 830 square miles of forest.
Although only three casualties were reported, the devastation was immense.
If 2024 YR4 were to make contact with Earth, it could unleash a similar level of destruction, mainly if it were to land in or near a densely populated area.
The asteroid's projected path brings it within approximately 66,000 miles of our planet, but due to orbital uncertainties, there's a slight chance it could directly hit Earth.
Upon its discovery, 2024 YR4 quickly rose to prominence on NASA's automated Sentry risk list, which ranks NEOs based on their likelihood of colliding with Earth.
The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) first spotted the asteroid.
This NASA-funded project scans the sky for moving objects with four ground-based telescopes.
The ATLAS telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, detected the space rock on 27 December 2024, about 27 million miles away.
Automated asteroid warning systems have since determined that the object will closely approach Earth in about eight years.
2024 YR4 has been rated a three on the Torino risk scale, categorising potential Earth impact events.
A score of three indicates that astronomers should closely observe the asteroid due to its likelihood of a close encounter with Earth and its impact chance of over one per cent.
However, experts still don't know much about 2024 YR4, making it challenging to assess its danger fully.
Factors such as the asteroid's size, composition, and the exact location of impact are crucial in determining the potential damage.
David Rankin, an engineer and asteroid hunter with the Catalina Sky Survey, has urged the public not to worry prematurely.
'Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us,' he told Space.com.
Rankin also mentioned that the current 'risk corridor,' the geographical area where the asteroid is most likely to hit, spans from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa.
However, this corridor could change with new observations and improved orbit calculations.
Astronomers are currently unable to use radar observations to accurately measure 2024 YR4's size, as it is too far away.
They may be able to perform these observations in 2028 when the asteroid passes within roughly 5 million miles of Earth.
In the meantime, astronomers must rely on the asteroid's absolute magnitude, or brightness, to estimate its size indirectly.
This method provides a rough diameter of 196 feet, but the estimate is contingent on the asteroid's surface reflectivity, which is unknown.
The composition of 2024 YR4 is also a significant factor in predicting its behaviour should it enter Earth's atmosphere.
A stony material could result in a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground.
At the same time, an iron composition could lead to the asteroid piercing through the atmosphere and creating an impact crater.
With 2024 YR4 identified as a potential, albeit unlikely, threat, the scientific community is racing to gather as much information as possible before 2032.
This knowledge will be crucial in preparing for potential impacts and developing risk mitigation strategies.
For our readers, while the prospect of an asteroid impact is certainly alarming, it's important to remember that space agencies and astronomers around the world are constantly monitoring the skies to protect our planet.
The chances of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth are slim, but the situation underscores the importance of investing in space research and planetary defence.
