When King Charles raised his glass at Wednesday night's state banquet and praised the AUKUS submarine partnership as 'innovative and vital collaboration,' the words carried more weight than typical diplomatic pleasantries.
Just three months earlier, the Trump administration launched a formal review of the very partnership the monarch was celebrating—a review that could determine whether Australia's biggest-ever defence investment becomes reality or an expensive diplomatic embarrassment.
The unprecedented pomp surrounding Trump's second state visit to the UK, with the largest military ceremony for a visiting leader in British living memory, wasn't just about protocol.
It was about preserving a trilateral alliance that Australia has already invested nearly $800 million in, with hundreds of billions more at stake.
Australia's submarines hanging in the balance
The Trump administration initiated a formal review of AUKUS in June 2025, sending shockwaves through Canberra where the submarine partnership has been framed as a cornerstone of national strategic policy.
The review is being led by Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby, a known sceptic of the pact, who has previously questioned the logic of 'giving away' America's 'crown jewels', namely its nuclear-powered submarines.
For Australian seniors watching their tax dollars at work, the numbers are staggering.
Australia has committed to spending A$368 billion ($240 billion) over three decades on the program, which includes billions of dollars of investment in the U.S. production base.
The first instalment of $798 million was already paid to the US in February.
'The trust underpinning US-Australia relations, built over decades since World War II, now faces a serious test'
The uncertainty is already affecting Australian confidence. A public opinion poll conducted in late July 2025 found that 60 per cent of Australians were pessimistic about the likelihood of receiving US submarines. It's a far cry from the optimism when the deal was first announced in 2021.
The royal charm offensive
Understanding these high stakes helps explain why Britain pulled out all the stops for Trump's visit. The ceremony at Windsor Castle involved 1,300 military personnel, 120 horses and the full weight of Britain's ceremonial traditions—a calculated display designed to appeal to a president who has previously gushed about royal pageantry.
Trump addressed the two countries' closeness but also spoke at length about his admiration for the royal family, adding that he considered the visit 'truly one of the highest honors of my life'.
The king's decision to specifically highlight AUKUS in his banquet speech wasn't accidental—it was a diplomatic nudge wrapped in royal protocol.
The unprecedented ceremony
Largest military welcome for a visiting leader in UK living memory
41-gun salute fired simultaneously at Windsor Castle and Tower of London
First time the 'Beating Retreat' ceremony performed for a state visit
Red Arrows flypast with red, white and blue smoke display
160 carefully selected guests including tech CEOs and politicians
The strategic choreography extended beyond pomp. Trump was seated between King Charles III and Catherine, Princess of Wales, while first lady Melania Trump sat across the table next to Queen Camilla and William, Prince of Wales—positioning that maximised his exposure to the royals he most admires.
Protests paint a different picture
While royalty rolled out the red carpet, several thousand people marched through central London on Wednesday to protest the president's trip, carrying banners reading 'No to the racism, no to Trump'. London's police force deployed 1,600 officers as they expected members of about 50 different groups to demonstrate.
The contrast was stark and deliberate. Trump's carriage procession notably did not include public onlookers—an intentional move by British government officials, who have been working to keep the thousands of people protesting in London out of Trump's view.
Adding to the controversy, protesters unfurled a giant photo of Trump and the late Jeffrey Epstein outside Windsor Castle, with four people arrested after videos of Trump and Epstein were projected onto the outer walls of Windsor Castle.
What this means for Australian seniors
The AUKUS review puts Australia in an uncomfortable position. The partnership envisages Australia acquiring up to five US Virginia-class submarines from 2032, with Britain and Australia designing and building a new class of submarine for delivery to Australia in the early 2040s.
However, a March report by the Congressional Research Service warned that the lack of U.S. shipbuilding capacities is jeopardising the partnership, with the U.S. Navy facing a shortage of attack submarines for two decades if vessels are sold to Australia, as shipyards have been only producing 1.2 Virginia-class subs a year since 2022.
What's at stake for Australia
- $368 billion committed over 30 years—Australia's largest-ever defence project
- First US submarine delivery scheduled for 2032, Australian-built subs by early 2040s
- $798 million already paid, with $4.5 billion total commitment to US/UK production
- 60 per cent of Australians now pessimistic about receiving promised submarines
- Review outcome expected by autumn 2025
There are some positive signs. Republican Rep. John Moolenaar of Michigan and Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois wrote that 'AUKUS is essential to strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific', and Republican lawmakers have joined their Democratic colleagues in voicing support for the partnership.
The broader diplomatic game
Thursday's meeting between Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers will likely focus on keeping AUKUS alive.
Australia signed a treaty with Britain in July to bolster cooperation over the next 50 years on AUKUS, showing Canberra's continued commitment despite American uncertainty.
The royal visit's success matters because if Trump is looking for a tangible win in US defence and industrial policy, AUKUS is it.
Australian investments in the US industrial base will help rebuild America's submarine capacity and sustain thousands of high-paying jobs.
Did you know?
Did you know?
One foreign policy expert suggested Australia might consider naming its first Virginia-class submarine the HMAS Donald J. Trump—a gesture that would appeal to the president's ego while securing the partnership's future.
What This Means For You
The coming months will determine whether Wednesday's royal pageantry translates into policy outcomes, or whether Australia's submarine dreams sink beneath the waves of America First politics.
What do you think about Australia's massive investment in AUKUS submarines, especially given the current uncertainty? Have you been following this story, and do you believe the royal treatment will help secure the partnership's future?
Credit: YouTube
Original Article
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09...nd-state-visit-uk-met-with-protests/105786186
The Trump Administration’s AUKUS Review: Trajectory and Long-Term Implications | List of Articles | International Information Network Analysis | SPF
Cited text: In June 2025, the Financial Times reported that the US Department of Defense had initiated a formal review of AUKUS—the trilateral security partnershi...
Excerpt: The Trump administration initiated a formal review of AUKUS in June 2025
https://www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/satake_02.html
The Trump Administration’s AUKUS Review: Trajectory and Long-Term Implications | List of Articles | International Information Network Analysis | SPF
Cited text: [3] The sudden announcement came as a surprise to Canberra, where AUKUS has been framed as a cornerstone of national strategic policy.
Excerpt: framed as a cornerstone of national strategic policy
https://www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/satake_02.html
The Trump Administration’s AUKUS Review: Trajectory and Long-Term Implications | List of Articles | International Information Network Analysis | SPF
Cited text: [1] The review is being led by Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, a known skeptic of the pact.
Excerpt: Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, a known skeptic of the pact
https://www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/satake_02.html
In view of Trump’s review of AUKUS, should Australia cancel the subs deal?
Cited text: Elbridge Colby has previously questioned the logic of “giving away” America’s “crown jewels”, namely its nuclear-powered submarines, and argued the US...
Excerpt: the logic of 'giving away' America's 'crown jewels', namely its nuclear-powered submarines
https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/ne...ew-of-aukus-should-australia-cancel-subs-deal
AUKUS: Trump administration reviewing Biden-era submarine pact with Australia, UK | CNN
Cited text: AUKUS is Australia’s biggest-ever defense project, with Canberra committing to spend A$368 billion ($240 billion) over three decades to the program, w...
Excerpt: Australia has committed to spend A$368 billion ($240 billion) over three decades to the program, which includes billions of dollars of investment in the U.S. production base
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/11/australia/trump-reviewing-aukus-submarine-pact-latam-intl
Trump’s AUKUS review puts Australian nuclear submarine deal in doubt—World Socialist Web Site
Cited text: The first installment of $798 million was paid to the US in February.
Excerpt: The first installment of $798 million was already paid to the US in February
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2025/06/14/xzxb-j14.html
The Trump Administration’s AUKUS Review: Trajectory and Long-Term Implications | List of Articles | International Information Network Analysis | SPF
Cited text: A public opinion poll conducted in late July 2025 found that 60 per cent of Australians were pessimistic about the likelihood of receiving US submarines.
Excerpt: A public opinion poll conducted in late July 2025 found that 60 per cent of Australians were pessimistic about the likelihood of receiving US submarines
https://www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/satake_02.html
Trump met by King Charles, royals at Windsor Castle on U.K. state visit
Cited text: The U.K.'s largest military ceremony for a visiting foreign leader in living memory brought out 1,300 military personnel, 120 horses and the full weig...
Excerpt: 1,300 military personnel, 120 horses and the full weight of Britain's ceremonial traditions
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/unite...e-visit-royal-windsor-king-charles-rcna231863
Pomp and protests for Trump's unprecedented second U.K. state visit
Cited text: Trump also addressed the two countries' closeness but also spoke at length about his admiration for the royal family, adding that he considered the vi...
Excerpt: Trump addressed the two countries' closeness but also spoke at length about his admiration for the royal family, adding that he considered the visit 'truly one of the highest honors of my life'
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/17/nx-s1-5543349/trump-king-uk-state-visit
September 17, 2025: Coverage of Trump’s UK visit | CNN
Cited text: Trump will be seated in between King Charles III and Catherine, Princess of Wales, while first lady Melania Trump will be across the table next to Que...
Excerpt: Trump was seated between King Charles III and Catherine, Princess of Wales, while first lady Melania Trump sat across the table next to Queen Camilla and William, Prince of Wales
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/trump-uk-state-visit-09-17-2025-intl
Trump attends banquet dinner with King Charles during second state visit to U.K.
Cited text: Several thousand people marched through central London Wednesday to protest the president's trip.
Excerpt: several thousand people marched through central London Wednesday to protest the president's trip, carrying banners reading 'No to the racism, no to Trump'
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-update...epstein-protests-king-charles-windsor-castle/
Trump attends banquet dinner with King Charles during second state visit to U.K.
Cited text: Carrying banners reading 'No to the racism, no to Trump,' the crowd, organized by the Stop Trump U.K. coalition, headed down Regent Street on their wa...
Excerpt: several thousand people marched through central London Wednesday to protest the president's trip, carrying banners reading 'No to the racism, no to Trump'
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-update...epstein-protests-king-charles-windsor-castle/
Trump attends banquet dinner with King Charles during second state visit to U.K.
Cited text: London's police force deployed 1,600 officers as they expected members of about 50 different groups that included climate, anti-racism and pro-Palesti...
Excerpt: London's police force deployed 1,600 officers as they expected members of about 50 different groups
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-update...epstein-protests-king-charles-windsor-castle/
September 17, 2025: Coverage of Trump’s UK visit | CNN
Cited text: President Donald Trump was welcomed to Windsor Castle earlier today with a carriage procession — one that notably did not include public onlookers. Th...
Excerpt: Trump's carriage procession notably did not include public onlookers—an intentional move by British government officials, who have been working to keep the thousands of people protesting in London out of Trump's view
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/trump-uk-state-visit-09-17-2025-intl
Pomp and protests for Trump's unprecedented second U.K. state visit
Cited text: Earlier this week, on the lawn outside Windsor Castle, protesters unfurled a giant photo of Trump and the late Jeffrey Epstein, the financier and sex ...
Excerpt: protesters unfurled a giant photo of Trump and the late Jeffrey Epstein outside Windsor Castle, with four people arrested after videos of Trump and Epstein were projected onto the outer walls of Windsor Castle
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/17/nx-s1-5543349/trump-king-uk-state-visit
AUKUS: Trump administration reviewing Biden-era submarine pact with Australia, UK | CNN
Cited text: It envisages Australia acquiring up to five US Virginia-class submarines from 2032.
Excerpt: The partnership envisages Australia acquiring up to five US Virginia-class submarines from 2032, with Britain and Australia designing and building a new class of submarine for delivery to Australia in the early 2040s
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/11/australia/trump-reviewing-aukus-submarine-pact-latam-intl
AUKUS: Trump administration reviewing Biden-era submarine pact with Australia, UK | CNN
Cited text: The UK would take first delivery in the late 2030s, with delivery to Australia in the early 2040s.
Excerpt: The partnership envisages Australia acquiring up to five US Virginia-class submarines from 2032, with Britain and Australia designing and building a new class of submarine for delivery to Australia in the early 2040s
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/11/australia/trump-reviewing-aukus-submarine-pact-latam-intl
Lawmakers exhort Trump: Keep security pact with Australia and UK alive
Cited text: A March report by the Congressional Research Service warned that the lack of U.S. shipbuilding capacities, including workforce shortage and insufficie...
Excerpt: a March report by the Congressional Research Service warned that the lack of U.S. shipbuilding capacities is jeopardizing the partnership, with U.S.
https://www.defensenews.com/congres...ep-security-pact-with-australia-and-uk-alive/
Lawmakers exhort Trump: Keep security pact with Australia and UK alive
Cited text: “AUKUS is essential to strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and advancing the undersea capabilities that will be central to ensuring peace and...
Excerpt: John Moolenaar of Michigan and Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois wrote that 'AUKUS is essential to strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific'
https://www.defensenews.com/congres...ep-security-pact-with-australia-and-uk-alive/
Republicans, Democrats alike exhort Trump: Keep security pact with Australia and UK alive—The Washington Post
Cited text: “AUKUS is essential to strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and advancing the undersea capabilities that will be central to ensuring peace and...
Excerpt: John Moolenaar of Michigan and Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois wrote that 'AUKUS is essential to strengthening deterrence in the Indo-Pacific'
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ea30ca-7717-11f0-a013-3892e10b2f53_story.html
Lawmakers exhort Trump: Keep security pact with Australia and UK alive
Cited text: So far, they have joined their Democratic colleagues in voicing support for the partnership.
Excerpt: Republican lawmakers have joined their Democratic colleagues in voicing support for the partnership
https://www.defensenews.com/congres...ep-security-pact-with-australia-and-uk-alive/
US will have access to new AUKUS nuclear submarine shipyard, Australia says | CNN
Cited text: Australia, which the same month signed a treaty with Britain to bolster cooperation over the next 50 years on AUKUS, has maintained it is confident th...
Excerpt: Australia signed a treaty with Britain in July to bolster cooperation over the next 50 years on AUKUS
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/13/aust...lia-nuclear-submarine-shipyard-aukus-intl-hnk
AUKUS will be worth the work. China’s alarm shows why Trump should get onboard | Lowy Institute
Cited text: If Trump is looking for a tangible win in US defence and industrial policy, AUKUS is it.
Excerpt: if Trump is looking for a tangible win in US defence and industrial policy, AUKUS is it
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-i...na-s-alarm-shows-why-trump-should-get-onboard
AUKUS will be worth the work. China’s alarm shows why Trump should get onboard | Lowy Institute
Cited text: Moreover, Australian investments in the US industrial base will help rebuild America’s submarine capacity and sustain thousands of high-paying jobs.
Excerpt: Australian investments in the US industrial base will help rebuild America's submarine capacity and sustain thousands of high-paying jobs
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-i...na-s-alarm-shows-why-trump-should-get-onboard
AUKUS will be worth the work. China’s alarm shows why Trump should get onboard | Lowy Institute
Cited text: To signal the critical importance of the partnership, Australia might consider naming its first Virginia-class submarine the HMAS Donald J. Trump.
Excerpt: Australia might consider naming its first Virginia-class submarine the HMAS Donald J.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-i...na-s-alarm-shows-why-trump-should-get-onboard
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