‘The current waitlist is likely to be even higher’: 300,000 older Australians could soon be without home care support

When 78-year-old Margaret from Ballarat applied for home care support after a fall, she thought help would come quickly. A few weeks, maybe a couple of months at most. Instead, more than a year later, she’s still waiting—and her story is a glimpse into a national crisis that experts say is about to explode.

A new forecast by one of Australia’s top aged care specialists has revealed just how severe the problem could become. According to Professor Kathy Eagar, as many as 300,000 elderly Australians could be waiting for home care by 2030—more than triple the number today. It’s a sobering figure that suggests our aged care system, already stretched to its limits, may be heading towards collapse.

For the more than 87,000 people currently waiting for support, this isn’t just data on a government spreadsheet—it’s months of uncertainty, declining health, and families pushed to breaking point.

An Expert Warning Australia Can’t Ignore

Professor Kathy Eagar’s voice carries serious weight in Australia’s health sector. Awarded an Order of Australia in 2024 for her contribution to health, she’s spent over four decades working in aged care research and reform.

She helped design the Australian National Aged Care Classification and contributed to the Aged Care Royal Commission—two of the most significant frameworks guiding the future of aged care. Now an adjunct professor at both the University of New South Wales and Queensland University of Technology, Eagar’s work focuses on how to fairly distribute care resources based on need.

Her latest modelling, using Australian Bureau of Statistics data and waitlist projections, exposes a grim truth: demand is growing far faster than supply. By June next year, the system is expected to face a shortfall of more than 171,000 home care places—equivalent to 31 per cent of unmet demand.

This means tens of thousands of seniors like Margaret could be left without adequate care, even if they qualify for assistance.

The Crisis That’s Already Here

While the numbers paint a frightening future, the crisis isn’t waiting for 2030—it’s unfolding now.

As of June 2024, 68,586 people were on the official waitlist for a Home Care Package, marking a 124.8 per cent increase in just one year. By March 2025, that number had climbed to over 87,000.

But even that doesn’t show the full extent of the problem. Among those listed, 16,784 people are already receiving some form of care but at a lower level than they need. They’re technically ‘in the system’, yet still waiting for proper support.

Geographically, the strain isn’t evenly felt. New South Wales accounts for 38 per cent of the current waitlist, while Victoria holds 21 per cent—highlighting both population density and potential disparities in service delivery.

When Waiting Becomes a Health Risk

According to the Department of Health and Aged Care, the average wait time for a Home Care Package is around five and a half months.

However, averages can be misleading. For those classified as ‘high priority’, the wait might be under a month—but for ‘medium priority’ applicants, it can stretch to nine months or more.

That’s nearly a year of struggling with everyday tasks—showering, cooking, cleaning, or even walking safely. For older Australians already recovering from illness or injury, such delays can worsen their health and independence.

The ripple effects are devastating. Many seniors end up in hospital simply because they can’t manage at home, placing further strain on already overcrowded wards. Others, unable to wait any longer, are forced into residential aged care before they’re ready—losing the independence they worked hard to maintain.

November Changes: Progress or More Confusion?

From 1 November 2025, the government plans to replace the Home Care Packages and Short-Term Restorative Care Program with a new initiative called Support at Home.

On paper, it sounds promising. The new system will offer more flexible service delivery, quarterly budgets, and an expanded range of support options. The government estimates that by 2035, around 1.4 million people will benefit from the program.

But experts remain cautious.

Professor Eagar and other analysts warn that flexibility alone won’t fix a system plagued by capacity shortages. Without more workers, funding, and infrastructure, a rebrand may do little to change outcomes.

Transitioning to the new framework also presents risks. Seniors currently receiving care will need to navigate new assessments and provider systems—an overwhelming prospect for many older Australians already struggling with bureaucracy.

Government Promises vs Ground Reality

Aged Care Minister Sam Rae insists the government is taking action, highlighting a plan to add 300,000 new home care places over the next decade.

But Eagar’s modelling suggests even those additions won’t keep up. Her data projects that by June 2030, the waitlist will surpass 301,000 people—a shortfall of 44 per cent.

Meanwhile, The Greens’ aged care spokesperson, Senator Penny Allman-Payne, has criticised the gap between government rhetoric and reality. She pointed out that assessment delays alone can stretch to six months, followed by another 12 to 18 months before care begins.

The Hidden Cost: Families and the Health System

Every delay in aged care access creates a domino effect that reaches far beyond seniors themselves.

Families often become unpaid carers—balancing full-time jobs, raising children, and providing daily care for elderly relatives. This leads to carer burnout, family strain, and in many cases, financial hardship.

The health system also feels the pressure. According to Professor Eagar, around 10 per cent of all public hospital beds in Australia are currently occupied by patients waiting for aged care placement.

This kind of ‘bed blocking’ limits hospital capacity for new patients, delays surgeries, and clogs emergency departments. What begins as an aged care bottleneck becomes a nationwide health system chokehold.

What the World Gets Right

Globally, countries that manage aged care demand more effectively—like Germany and Japan—share common principles: early intervention, sustainable funding, and integrated health and social care systems.

Germany’s long-term care insurance, introduced in 1995, provides universal coverage and funding stability. Japan’s system, launched in 2000, blends government insurance with family contributions to create a more sustainable model.

Both nations designed their systems decades before their populations reached crisis point. Australia, however, has been slower to adapt, leaving it now scrambling to cope with rapid demographic change.

What You Can Do Now

If you or a loved one are waiting for a home care package—or expect to need one soon—acting early is key.

Professor Eagar’s Warning: Time Is Running Out

Professor Eagar’s modelling offers more than statistics—it’s a warning that Australia’s aged care system is at a breaking point.

Reforms are on the horizon, but without urgent investment and structural change, the numbers suggest more seniors will be left waiting, struggling, and falling through the cracks.

For families, the message is clear: plan early, stay informed, and prepare to take charge of your own care journey.

Because the question isn’t whether Australia will face an aged care crisis—it’s how long we can afford to keep ignoring the one we’re already in.

While the waitlist numbers paint a worrying picture, the next big question is whether upcoming reforms can truly fix the cracks in the system—or just cover them up with new names and promises.

Recent policy changes have aimed to make home-based support more flexible and accessible, but critics say the reforms may not go far enough to meet real-world demand.

If you want to see how these changes could impact future care access, the following story takes a closer look at the government’s new approach and what it could mean for those depending on support.

Read more: New Aged Care Shake-Up Keeps Seniors at Home – Lifeline or Letdown?

Have you or a loved one struggled to access the home care support you need?